Israel Faces Coalition Deadlock After Elections: Who Will Form the Next Government?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has lost his coalition’s parliamentary majority following legislative elections held on October 27.

However, a bloc of Jewish parties opposed to Netanyahu also failed to secure a majority in the 120-seat Knesset, leaving Israel without a clear path to forming a new government.

Weeks of political negotiations likely lie ahead as Israel’s disparate factions weigh potential governing arrangements. Options include a national unity government uniting rival parties or a minority government dependent on external support. Should talks fail, Israel could be headed back to the polls.

Here is what you should know:

What are the final results of Israel’s elections?

The pro-Netanyahu coalition secured 53 seats:

• Likud – 27
• United Torah Judaism – 7
• Otzma Yehudit – 7
• Shas – 6
• Religious Zionism – 6

A bloc of Jewish parties opposing Netanyahu won 48 seats:

• Yashar – 21
• B’Yachad – 12
• The Democrats – 8
• Yisrael Beytenu – 7

Arab-led parties captured 19 seats:

• Joint List – 11
• Ra’am – 8

All existing blocs fall short of the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority, meaning some parties will need to realign or cooperate across factional lines to establish a new government.

What happens next?

Israel’s election results must be officially certified and delivered to President Isaac Herzog by November 4.

The new Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in on November 10.

Herzog must designate an incoming Knesset member to form a new government by November 11. He is expected to consult party leaders and select the candidate he believes has the strongest prospects of building a viable coalition.

The candidate commissioned by Herzog has 28 days to form a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension.

Who will Herzog nominate first to form a government?

He has not yet announced his choice, but the most likely candidates are Netanyahu or former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot, whose Yashar party received the most votes within the opposition bloc.

According to Israeli media outlet Yedioth Ahronoth, Eisenkot may hold an advantage over Netanyahu, as some Arab-led parties are considering endorsing him in an effort to remove Netanyahu from office.

Herzog has urged Israeli politicians to move beyond rigid partisan positions and pursue “creative solutions” that would produce a new government and prevent a second election cycle.

Prior to the election, Herzog pledged to do everything possible to spare the country another round of voting, even if it requires advocating for a national unity government that brings together rivals Netanyahu and Eisenkot.

Could the opposition bloc join forces with Arab-led parties?

It remains unclear.

Eisenkot and other opposition leaders have previously ruled out partnering with Arab-led parties.

Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak, however, has suggested they “can change their mind,” arguing that Netanyahu would act similarly in their position.

“If Netanyahu faced a comparable problem, he would immediately invite Mansour Abbas,” Barak told France 24 on Friday, referring to the Ra’am leader, “and appoint him minister of interior.”

Abbas has signaled a willingness to cooperate with the opposition camp, stating that Eisenkot’s conditions would not present an obstacle for his party, according to Israel’s Channel 12.

Yousef Jabareen of the Arab-led Joint List has also said his party is prepared for the “ousting of the Netanyahu government.”

“The change comes through a Jewish-Arab partnership, a genuine and equal partnership,” he wrote on X.

Even if Arab-led parties do not formally enter the opposition coalition, they could support it from the outside by helping it pass a confidence vote in the Knesset.

Raluca Ganea, co-founder of Israeli civil society group Zazim, told Al Jazeera that a coalition between the opposition bloc and Arab-led parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel “is the only path forward for Israeli democracy as a whole.”

What happens if no one can form a government?

If Herzog’s first candidate fails to form a government within 42 days, the Israeli president may ask another Knesset member to try within 28 days. If that candidate also fails, a majority of Knesset members could propose a third candidate, who would have a final 14 days to assemble a government.

Even without a coalition commanding at least 61 seats, a candidate could attempt to form a minority government by relying on outside support from smaller parties, including Arab-led parties, or negotiate a power-sharing arrangement with rotating prime ministers.

If none of these options succeed and deadlock persists, the Knesset would be formally dissolved, and Israelis would return to the polls for another election.

Those elections would need to be called within 90 days.

Who is in charge in the meantime?

Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed.

If the process is prolonged, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister could remain in power for months longer, even if he ultimately fails to join the next governing coalition.

Source link