Israel Vigilant as Iraq Sets Deadline for Militia Disarmament, Fears of Escalation

Iraq has mandated that pro-Iranian Shi’ite militias disarm by the end of September, a move being closely watched by Israeli defense officials who worry the groups might stage attacks on Israel after the deadline.

Thus far, the militias have refused the disarmament order but have indicated a willingness to negotiate only following a full US troop withdrawal from Iraq.

Funded by Iran, these Shi’ite militias maintain weapons caches near Iraq’s borders, attracting heightened scrutiny from Israeli intelligence in recent weeks.

In recent years, Iraqi Shi’ite militias have synchronized with Iranian and Houthi strategies, launching missiles and drones at Israel. Israel’s Defense Forces retaliated, and Jerusalem issued stern warnings to Baghdad that continued militia aggression would provoke a stronger response.

Israeli intelligence, reportedly operating across Iraq to monitor Iranian activities, faces significant challenges due to the country’s vast terrain, complicating efforts to pinpoint and neutralize militia strongholds and arsenals.

Throughout the conflict and during Operation Roaring Lion, the US mediated with Iraq, urging restraint on the militias. Washington views these groups, akin to the Houthis, as destabilizing forces and has demanded their disarmament, threatening military action otherwise.

Under US pressure, among other factors, Iraq issued an ultimatum for militia disarmament, offering US troop withdrawal as an incentive.

The deadline looms at September’s end. Led by Kataib Hezbollah, the militias have outright rejected disarmament but consented to talks solely on their conditions and post-US withdrawal.

Both Israel and the US fear that after the deadline, the militias, backed by Iran, might launch attacks on US bases and Israeli territory to assert their power.

The IRGC aims to maintain alliances with these militias, Houthis, and Hezbollah, providing Tehran leverage amid US pressures on the Strait of Hormuz and its economy.

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