Israeli Seizure of Ali al-Taher Ridge Shifts Leverage in Lebanon Peace Talks

Beirut, Lebanon – On Friday, Israel asserted operational control over the Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon. This development in its conflict with Hezbollah is believed by analysts to provide Israel with increased leverage in upcoming negotiations with the Lebanese government.

Israeli forces have been conducting operations to seize the ridge for weeks, claiming the presence of Hezbollah tunnels underneath and subjecting the area to frequent drone and airstrikes. Analysts speaking to Al Jazeera note that this strategically vital high ground holds significance for both Israel and Hezbollah due to its oversight of nearby areas, including the southern city of Nabatieh.

Israel asserts that the ridge harbors a network of Hezbollah tunnels alongside underground operational rooms, weapons depots, and fighter living quarters. However, despite claims of control, military operations and attacks in the region continue.

This persists despite the June ceasefire agreed upon by Israel and Lebanon, which has been repeatedly violated.

Political and security analyst Bassel Doueik told Al Jazeera that the Ali al-Taher ridge is crucial to the outcome of Lebanese-Israeli negotiations.

“Israel has daily breached the ceasefire, and the Lebanese government continues to negotiate out of necessity,” Doueik stated. “If Israel successfully occupies the hill, it will gain a significant upper hand in negotiations simply by controlling more territory.”

Lack of Optimism

Israel and Lebanon commenced US-mediated direct negotiations in April, despite opposition from Hezbollah.

These talks follow nearly three years of Israeli military operations in Lebanon. The recent conflict began on October 8, 2023, when Hezbollah launched attacks on Israel following the start of the war in Gaza. Israel subsequently intensified its offensive in September 2024, resulting in over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon and the assassination of much of Hezbollah’s military leadership, including longtime Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Israel also invaded southern Lebanon, demolishing homes and infrastructure across the region.

A ceasefire was reached in November 2024, but Israel allegedly violated the agreement over 10,000 times. In response, Hezbollah resumed its attacks amid this year’s US-Israeli conflict with Iran.

Israel retaliated by re-invading Lebanon and conducting strikes nationwide, including killing over 350 people in an event known as Black Wednesday. In late June, Tel Aviv and Beirut announced a framework agreement intended to end the fighting by establishing so-called “pilot zones” where the Lebanese Army would disarm Hezbollah.

Despite the agreement and ongoing talks, Israeli forces have not ceased their attacks on Lebanon. Beirut maintains that continued negotiations are its only option.

Israel now claims the framework agreement is failing, though the Lebanese government has not yet abandoned it.

“The Lebanese are advocating for pilot zones in areas where Israel is currently operating, allowing them to withdraw troops, but Israel is interested in establishing zones in areas where it is not operating,” Nicholas Blanford, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and author of a book on Hezbollah, told Al Jazeera.

He noted that few in Lebanon remain optimistic about the pilot zone plan.

Strategic Importance

In recent weeks, Israel has concentrated its attacks on the Qantara mountain range and the Ali al-Taher ridge, where Hezbollah fighters are reportedly stationed.

On Sunday, the Israeli military killed seven people in the southern villages of Arab Salim and Nabatieh al-Fawqa. On Monday, 12 others were killed in Israeli strikes in Kfar Rumman.

Analysts indicate the ridge holds geographic importance for both Hezbollah and Israel.

“The location is of strategic importance to Hezbollah,” Blanford explained. “It offers dominating views westward over Nabatieh, eastward over Marjayoun and Khiam to Shebaa, and southward toward the [occupied] Golan Heights in northern Israel. It is entirely credible that Hezbollah maintains a massive bunker complex within this hill.”

However, Blanford does not anticipate Israel attempting to hold Ali al-Taher.

“If Israel wanted to retain Ali al-Taher, it would need to seize the high ground to the north and northeast; otherwise, the position would be vulnerable to Hezbollah attacks,” he said, recalling a similar dynamic during Israel’s 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon from 1982-2000. “I doubt Israel would want to extend that deep, so they would likely destroy the ridge and retreat to more defensible positions.”

Future of Negotiations

Hezbollah continues to oppose direct negotiations with Israeli leaders, previously stating a preference for indirect talks, similar to the arrangement of the 2024 ceasefire.

“The negotiations have reached an impasse because Lebanon and Israel fundamentally disagree on the implementation of the pilot zones scheme,” David Wood, the International Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Lebanon, told Al Jazeera. “Lebanon argues that Israel has not withdrawn from any directly occupied areas, while Israel insists it will not withdraw until Hezbollah disarms.”

The question remains whether Israel’s advance on Ali al-Taher will grant it further leverage over Lebanon in talks set to resume later this month.

Doueik noted that the talks are unlikely to alter the status quo on the ground, as the Israeli government focuses on projecting strength ahead of upcoming elections.

“The most crucial factor in the Lebanese-Israeli negotiations is the upcoming October elections,” he said.

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