Netanyahu’s Governing Future Unclear as Split Electorate Nears Votational Deadline
On the streets of Jerusalem, crowded with secular and ultra‑Orthodox Jews, religious nationalists, settlers, Palestinians, and soldiers Returning from deployments, uncertainty hangs over an election less than a month away that could mark a turning point for a country profoundly changed after the Hamas attacks of 7 October 2023 and nearly three years of war in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.
The political battle remains on a knife‑edge.
For over two years most polls have predicted that the coalition of parties led by prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu will collectively slip below the 61‑seat threshold needed to form a government.
But there is no clear path to power for his main opponent, Gadi Eisenkot, the former chief of staff of the Israeli Defence Forces, even if he maintains current levels of support, because he has ruled out going into coalition with any of the parties led by Palestinian citizens of Israel, who are projected to claim a critical 12 seats.
For Netanyahu to stay in power, he would have to either put together a different coalition or pull off an unprecedented election‑night surprise. Another deeply fragmented Knesset seems likely, in which neither side is close to securing a majority.
The latest Channel 13 poll, published last week, captured that deadlock: Jewish Israeli parties opposed to Netanyahu were projected to win 52 seats, against 51 for the prime minister’s bloc, with both falling short of the 61 required for a majority.
Eisenkot’s Yashar party topped the poll with 22 seats, while Netanyahu’s Likud was projected to take 18.
The lack of clarity over the next government – with both main blocs on the right – is fuelling unease among Israelis, some of whom believe little will change whoever becomes prime minister.
Average public trust across the eight Israeli institutions measured consistently by the Israel Democracy Institute, a statistics body, stood at 34 % in 2025, compared with 61 % in 2012.
An atmosphere of pessimism and indecision is palpable in Jerusalem, where tensions between Palestinians in occupied East Jerusalem – the majority of whom cannot vote in Israeli national elections – and rightwing Jewish Israelis have deepened since 7 October. The Hamas attack is likely to weigh heavily on the ballot: a recent poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 68 % of Jewish respondents said 7 October would be a central factor in deciding how they voted.
Another advert showing Ben‑Gvir at the Machane Yehuda market in Jerusalem. Photograph: Quique Kierszenbaum/The GuardianSource link
