Israel’s Election Outcome May Take Weeks to Decide as Coalition Talks Loom

Polling stations across Israel will close on Tuesday evening, but the identity of the country’s next prime minister—whether Benjamin Netanyahu or one of his rivals—may not be confirmed for weeks.

The process could even necessitate another election.

This delay stems from Israel’s electoral system, in which citizens vote for party lists rather than individual candidates. No single party is projected to secure the 61 seats required for a majority in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Consequently, the incoming prime minister must build a coalition government.

Early polling indicates a close contest between blocs backing Netanyahu and his principal challenger, retired General Gadi Eisenkot. Should neither side reach the 61-seat threshold, Israel could face another vote within months, with Netanyahu’s administration serving as a caretaker government in the interim.

Here is an overview of the process.

Shortly after polls close at 10 p.m. local time (1900 GMT), Israel’s three primary television broadcasters will publish exit polls estimating each party’s seat count.

Exit polls generally offer a reliable snapshot of voter behavior, though they can deviate from the official results, which are expected in the coming days.

While The Associated Press calls thousands of U.S. elections, it does not project winners in foreign contests.

If neither bloc achieves a decisive victory—as anticipated—the coming weeks will involve intense negotiations among party leaders as they attempt to assemble a 61-seat majority.

Israel’s largely ceremonial president, Isaac Herzog, will consult with all party leaders following the election and invite the candidate most likely to form a coalition to attempt doing so. If that individual cannot secure a majority within six weeks, the president may turn to another candidate.

The system grants disproportionate influence to smaller parties, which often hold the deciding votes. Leaders of larger parties typically court them with offers of cabinet posts, budget allocations, or specific policy commitments.

Arab-led parties could theoretically determine the outcome of this election.

Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have thus far rejected any partnership with these parties. Nevertheless, Arab-led factions could enable Eisenkot to lead a minority government by supporting him from outside the coalition or simply abstaining during the Knesset vote to seat the next administration.

Should negotiations fail to produce a majority, Israel would hold another election within months, repeating the process.

Netanyahu’s government would continue as a caretaker administration, and public services would remain unaffected. However, it would lack the mandate to implement significant policy changes.

Even a repeat election may not settle the question.

The most recent national election in Israel, held in November 2022, was the fifth in three and a half years.

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