Israel’s Path to Power: Navigating the Complex Challenge of Coalition Building

Governing Israel has always required the formation of coalitions. The current challenge is assembling a partnership that can secure at least 61 of the 120 seats in the Knesset.

Following the elections on October 27, Israel finds itself without a clear winner, leaving the nation in a state of political uncertainty.

Consistent with the country’s political history, the next administration must be a coalition government. The central question is which leader can secure the necessary 61 seats in the 120-member Knesset to claim the premiership.

To explore the various political permutations, Al Jazeera has developed an interactive tool. Users can utilize data from four different exit polls or input their own seat estimates to experiment with party combinations and attempt to reach the 61-seat threshold.

Current Standings

Preliminary counts from the Central Elections Committee indicate that Likud is the largest single party, holding 27 seats. Current projections suggest Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc may secure 54 seats, compared to 50 for Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc.

Election night exit polls highlighted the narrow margin of the race. Kan 11 and Channel 13 reported a deadlock, with both Netanyahu and Eisenkot tied at 51 seats. Channel 12 projected a slight edge for Netanyahu at 52 seats to Eisenkot’s 49, while Channel 15 provided the most optimistic outlook for the incumbent, forecasting 55 seats for Netanyahu against 49 for the opposition.

The Mechanics of the Knesset

The Knesset consists of 120 seats, distributed proportionally based on the national vote share, provided a party meets the 3.25 percent minimum threshold for entry.

To establish a stable majority and form a government, a leader must secure the support of at least 61 members. As neither major bloc has reached this number in initial counts or polls, the focus now shifts to negotiating with smaller parties to bridge the gap.

The Obstacles to Consensus

Arab-led parties, specifically Ra’am and the Joint List, could potentially serve as kingmakers, with combined support estimated between 16 and 19 seats. However, significant ideological divides persist.

Netanyahu has previously condemned the idea of a coalition with Arab parties as “shameful,” and several prominent figures within the Jewish-led opposition have similarly ruled out such a partnership. This creates a scenario where mathematically viable coalitions remain politically impossible.

Bloc Compositions

Netanyahu’s coalition includes Likud, the ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism parties, and far-right elements such as Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism and Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit.

Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc consists of his own Yashar party, the Together list (associated with Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid), Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu, and Yair Golan’s Democrats.

The Road Ahead

Following the certification of the final results, the president will grant a mandate to the Knesset member most likely to secure a majority. This individual has 28 days to form a government, with a potential 14-day extension.

If these efforts fail, the mandate may be passed to another lawmaker. Should no coalition be formed, Israel faces the prospect of renewed elections, mirroring the political instability seen between 2019 and 2022.

Benjamin Netanyahu, who has served 19 years as prime minister across three separate terms, continues as caretaker prime minister during these negotiations. He also remains under trial for corruption charges, which he denies.

Official results are expected by November 4, though the subsequent negotiations to establish a functioning government may be prolonged.

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