Israel’s Upcoming Election May Mark the End of Netanyahu’s Political Era

The forthcoming Israeli elections are poised to shape the legacy of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is under increasing scrutiny for his management of regional conflicts and corruption allegations.

Netanyahu, Israel’s longest‑serving prime minister and a political survivor, now confronts his most formidable test yet. The October general election could bring his nearly four‑decade tenure to a decisive and contentious close.

Recommended Stories

list of 4 itemsend of list

Behind the scenes, a series of political events continues to unfold as Netanyahu is alleged to have persuaded U.S. President Donald Trump to join a coalition against Iran on February 28, prompting Tehran to respond with strikes on Israel, Gulf states, and maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

Israel is currently engaged in a separate conflict with the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, a situation that places Netanyahu between U.S. pressure to de‑escalate in Lebanon and a domestic desire to press the fight against Iran and its regional proxies.

Public anger is also directed at Netanyahu for refusing to authorize an independent inquiry into the failures of his government before and after the Hamas‑led attacks on southern Israel on October 7, 2023.

After the ensuing conflict in Gaza, Israel has faced mounting international scrutiny, leading some nations to label it a pariah and sparking stronger criticism within U.S. political circles.

Simultaneously, Netanyahu contends with multiple corruption charges dating back to 2019; a conviction could result in imprisonment.

In sum, the Israeli election arrives at a pivotal moment for both Netanyahu and the nation.

“It appears that [Netanyahu] may be in real trouble,” political analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg told Al Jazeera. “The U.S. agreement with Iran has not been well received, and the public remains uncertain about what is happening in Lebanon.”

Rock or hard place

The Israeli public recognizes the critical importance of U.S. support for national security. However, Israel and the United States now hold divergent views on the future of the Lebanon conflict, with Trump seeking to reduce hostilities to preserve regional stability and the flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has incorporated Lebanon into its agreement with the United States, meaning any further Israeli operations in southern Lebanon could jeopardize the memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington.

Both dovish and hawkish voices in Israel blame Netanyahu for the conduct of the Lebanon campaign; right‑wing factions urge continued warfare against Hezbollah, while others warn that defying Trump’s wishes would further strain U.S.–Israeli relations.

Gadi Eisenkot, a former Israeli chief of staff and Netanyahu’s main political challenger, attributes the current U.S.–Israel tension to Netanyahu’s inability to clearly communicate Israel’s strategy in Lebanon to Washington.

US relations

The memorandum of understanding signed by Iran and the United States on June 18 obliges both parties and their allies to “immediately and permanently terminate military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon” and guarantees “the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon”. Despite this, Israel has publicly refused to withdraw from Lebanese territory and continues to conduct attacks, resulting in approximately 4,230 deaths and 12,179 injuries since March 2.

Northern Israeli towns remain within range of Hezbollah rockets and drones, and the militia has yet to be defeated.

Political analyst Ori Goldberg noted that Netanyahu promised northern residents a future they could not realistically achieve, and many are now weary, yearning for a return to normalcy.

The window for continued Israeli activity in Lebanon may be limited; media reports indicate that Trump is growing frustrated with Netanyahu’s conduct, describing him as “crazy” in a recent phone call.

On June 7, Trump told The Financial Times that Netanyahu must adhere to Washington’s ceasefire terms with Iran, asserting, “I call all the shots; he does not.”

Levy, a former Israeli government adviser, observed that although Trump and Netanyahu held seven in‑person meetings during the president’s first 13 months in office, none have taken place since the joint war on Iran began on February 28, 2026. This development worries Netanyahu, who is likely seeking another meeting to restore U.S. favor before the upcoming election.

“He is watching the minute hand and avoiding the hour hand; the timeframe is that tight,” Levy added.

Source link