Jets and Senators Forge Ahead Despite Key Star Departures

Atypical of early-season expectations, the Ottawa Senators and Winnipeg Jets have surged to the tops of their respective divisions by points percentage, with the Senators tied for first in the Atlantic and the Jets leading the Central.

Nevertheless, the true narrative will unfold through competition on the ice.

Given the offseason developments, skepticism surrounding both clubs is understandable. Brady Tkachuk officially requested and secured a trade to the south, remaining in the Atlantic Division following a modest postseason exit. In Winnipeg, the focus has shifted to life without Connor Hellebuyck.

Senators supporters have bestowed the nickname ‘James Bond’ on Tkachuk after he recorded zero goals, assists, and seven penalty minutes through the Panthers’ early going. Meanwhile, in Winnipeg, Hellebuyck’s absence has been a recurring topic of discussion, with the veteran goaltender currently on the sidelines.

Whether either team can thrive without its prominent figures is a complex question.

Tkachuk’s Departure and Ottawa’s New Direction

For Ottawa, the transaction felt like subtraction by addition, even as Tkachuk’s on-ice contributions are widely recognized. Off‑ice developments, including podcast ventures and family matters, seemingly created a rift between the player and the organization, with reports suggesting some within the locker room welcomed his exit.

Tkachuk has missed 10 and 22 games over the past two seasons, respectively, and his ice time decreased significantly last year. While he remains an effective contributor, his production has dipped from previous levels. Whether this reflects a typical hockey fluctuation, a player with one foot out the door, or another factor remains open to interpretation.

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Despite the personnel change, Ottawa’s overall structure improved last season. The team ranked among the league’s top-10 offensively, finishing eighth with 275 goals scored.

Defensively, the club’s numbers suffered due to goaltending that ranked among the league’s weakest, as Ottawa employed five different netminders en route to a team save percentage of .882, excluding empty-net situations.

With that context in mind, a key question for Ottawa emerges: Did the organization do sufficient work to replace Tkachuk’s offensive output from last season? Within that otherwise sound structure, the club will need goaltending improvements to maximize its potential. Nominal replacement William Eklund has a history of scoring at a comparable rate, suggesting the offensive drop-off may be manageable.

Goaltending stability is paramount. The team needs a full season of healthy play from Linus Ullmark, as backup Samuel Ersson has ranked among the league’s worst over the past two seasons, posting 28.2 goals saved below expected. However, with the Atlantic Division potentially softening, there may be additional room for error.

Jets’ Outlook Without Hellebuyck

The Jets’ goaltending situation presents a greater forecasting challenge. The team struggled to win even with Hellebuyck performing at slightly above-average levels last season, and with the franchise star currently on the sideline, Winnipeg finds itself in a neutral yet uncertain position—neither helped nor hindered by his absence.

Stuart Skinner has started the year on a strong note, but history with the Edmonton Oilers cautions against overreliance. As a goaltender, he is serviceable overall yet notoriously inconsistent game-to-game, and when his performances deteriorate, they can be pronouncedly poor. Such volatility poses risks for a team not historically adept at shielding its netminders.

Playing behind a Jets club not traditionally known for protecting its goaltenders, this configuration could prove precarious. The alternative is newcomer Clay Stevenson, formerly the Washington Capitals’ third-string netminder, who recently joined the organization.

With just five NHL appearances to his name at age 27, Stevenson is difficult to project with any degree of certainty. At 6-foot-4, he carries a career .912 save percentage, suggesting legitimate potential. Perhaps the true assessment will come once he reaches double-digit starts later this month.

A trade for Hellebuyck could prompt General Manager Kevin Cheveldayoff to introduce additional NHL talent to the roster. If Stevenson performs well, the need for goaltending reinforcements may diminish, and adding depth to the middle or upper-middle of the lineup would provide significant benefit.

Compounding the challenge, the Jets reside in a highly competitive Central Division. Securing early points is prudent, as division rivals Colorado, Utah, and Minnesota are positioned as expected contenders, and victories will be at a premium throughout the season.

Currently, Ottawa appears poised for a playoff berth, with ceiling potential exceeding that baseline. By contrast, Winnipeg faces a steeper climb; the roster’s current profile remains incomplete, making a deep postseason run substantially more challenging over 84 games.

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