Big picture: Hosts aim to reverse momentum
As Australia prepares for their second Test in South Africa since 2018, the focus shifts back to the dramatic 2018 series where the visitors secured a commanding 1-0 lead. This time around, South Africa seeks to counteract a similar outcome, having endured a heavy defeat in Durban. Matt Renshaw’s prolific 190, 82, and two wickets played a pivotal role in Australia’s dominance last week, complemented by Josh Hazlewood’s career-best fourth-innings figures that sealed the hosts’ fate more decisively than eight years prior. Aiden Markram’s 75 in the fourth innings echoed his earlier 143 in a failed 2018 chase, underscoring South Africa’s ongoing challenges in fourth-innings situations.Where the narrative diverges is in South Africa’s response to their defeat. In 2018, only Lungi Ngidi replaced Morne Morkel, but this iteration may see multiple adjustments. Kyle Verreynne’s potential exclusion, with Ryan Rickelton retaining wicketkeeping duties, signals strategic shifts as the team seeks to regain confidence on a surface expected to offer grass cover amid forecasted rain.
Australia, despite pre-series selection turbulence, now appear cohesive. Cameron Green’s absence delays middle-order restructuring, potentially allowing them to clinch the series before the third Test while advancing toward the World Test Championship final. Their pace bowlers, though heavily utilized in Durban, are expected to feature again, with concerns over cumulative strain if required to bowl first in Gqeberha.While the match is live or die for South Africa, it also significantly impacts the WTC standings. A loss would push them to fifth, behind Bangladesh and India, while Australia gains ground toward a third consecutive final.
Form guide
South Africa LWWWL (last five Tests, most recent first)
Australia WWLWL
Ryan Rickelton’s batting form is a concern•AFP/Getty Images
In the spotlight: Ryan Rickelton and Travis Head
Ryan Rickelton‘s struggles continued in Durban, with scores of 0 and 2 following his 2025 century against Pakistan. The wicketkeeper-batsman, now 31, has averaged 25.72 in his last 12 Test innings, with all three of his lowest scores coming against Australia. South Africa’s decision to entrust him with keeping duties and potentially lower the order reflects his experience in first-class cricket, where he has scored 12 of his 19 centuries while keeping. Meanwhile, the form of Anrich Nortje remains pivotal as he returns from a three-year absence.Travis Head faces questions over his optimal batting position. While Australia considers him a destructive match-winner, his performance varies significantly based on role. He averages 57.86 when opening compared to 33.46 at No. 5 in Tests, raising doubts about his long-term suitability. His overseas average of 31.62 contrasts starkly with 51.86 at home, highlighting the need for strategic adjustments to maximize his impact.
Travis Head’s batting position is a key tactical question•AFP/Getty Images
Team news: Rabada’s return, lineups likely stable
South Africa’s probable XI features the return of Kagiso Rabada from hamstring injury, with Matthew Breetzke likely opening and Marques Ackerman debuting at No. 5. Spinner options remain fluid, while Temba Bavuma retains the captaincy and Anrich Nortje could reclaim his spot after a strong performance in Durban. Australia, meanwhile, may stick with their Durban core, with Pat Cummins weighing options ahead of the third Test. Josh Inglis and Cooper Connolly are fit but unlikely prospects to displace current selections.
South Africa: (probable) 1 Aiden Markram, 2 Matthew Breetzke, 3 David Bedingham, 4 Temba Bavuma (capt), 5 Marques Ackerman, 6 Wiaan Mulder, 7 Ryan Rickelton (wk), 8 Marco Jansen, 9 Kagiso Rabada, 10 Keshav Maharaj/Senuran Muthusamy, 11 Anrich Nortje
Australia: (probable) 1 Travis Head, 2 Nic Maddinson, 3 Marnus Labuschagne, 4 Steven Smith, 5 Matt Renshaw, 6 Alex Carey (wk), 7 Beau Webster, 8 Pat Cummins (capt), 9 Mitchell Starc, 10 Nathan Lyon, 11 Josh Hazlewood
Gqeberha last hosted a Test in 2024•Gallo Images/Getty Images
Pitch and conditions: Rain forecast, grass-covered surface
Meteorological uncertainty looms over the opening days, with rain potentially disrupting play, while clearer skies are anticipated from day three onward. The pitch, recovering after a dry September, will retain a grass cover, expected to assist seam movement despite being slower than the center wicket’s surface.
Stats and trivia
Quotes
“Playing in PE, it’s one of the ones we look forward to. There’s a bit of a different atmosphere with the band. Where we stay close to the mall, there’s a lot more excitement from people. Hopefully that excitement translates to bums on the seats. It’s a Sunday, day one. I don’t know whether the weather is going to encourage people’s enthusiasm. Generally, PE is decently attended.”
Temba Bavuma on expectations for a crowd
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