Kalshi Traders Estimate 50-50 Odds for Nasdaq-100 Closing Above 30,000 in 2026 Amid Weakening Momentum

Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange on June 29, 2026.

NYSE

The Nasdaq-100 is up approximately 18% in 2026, but traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi are skeptical about significant gains in the second half. Speculators currently assign 50-50 odds to the tech-heavy index closing 2026 above 30,000, a level first reached in late May. As of midday Tuesday, the index was just 1% shy of this threshold.

Kalshi’s contracts prompt traders to bet “yes” or “no” on specific year-end price ranges, with resolutions tied to Google Finance data on Dec. 31. The Nasdaq-100’s rally followed the U.S. market hitting Iran conflict-driven lows on March 30, surging over 33% by June 2 as artificial intelligence optimism returned, fueled by non-financial Nasdaq-listed stocks.

Declining Sentiment

Current market sentiment suggests the bullish momentum may be waning. Only 40% of contracts predict an annual high above 32,000, with the year-to-date peak at 30,762 recorded on June 3. Traders assign roughly 27% odds to the index surpassing 33,000 by year-end.

Nasdaq-100 year-to-date.

UBS analysts noted in a Tuesday report that while equity gains may persist in the latter half of 2026, technology’s dominance could diminish. The Nasdaq-100 recently added SpaceX to its roster, but renewed focus on non-tech sectors may limit further upside. “Following the robust semiconductor rally in Q2, investors are seeking diversification beyond tech as they reassess AI’s next phase,” said UBS CIO Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi. “While AI growth remains intact, future equity gains will likely stem from broader market leadership.”

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship involving customer acquisition and minority investment.

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