Key Market Drivers for Thursday’s Session: Fed Signals, Consumer Tariffs, and Top Stock Moves

The Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes released Wednesday reinforced expectations for another rate increase, likely before year‑end, with prediction markets now pricing a 76% chance of a hike before the end of 2026. Options trader Cem Karsan of Cboe warned that rising bond yields could trigger market stress, noting that yields on 10‑ and 30‑year Treasuries have hit levels not seen since 2002, while the 2‑year yield stands at 4.77%.

Equities advanced Tuesday, with the S&P 500 climbing about 14% year‑to‑date and the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq‑100 reaching new highs (Nasdaq‑100 up 23.4%, Composite up 18.5%).

Meanwhile, a New York Fed report highlighted how tariffs are pushing consumer costs higher, prompting a focus on mall‑centric retailers. Recent price action includes:

• Best Buy down 12% from last month’s peak, but up 32% over six months.
• Dillard’s off 12% from its Dec 2025 high, yet up 25% in three months.
• Macy’s down 14% from August’s high, up 26% in six months.
• Gap down 19% from February’s high.
• Kohl’s down 20% from its December peak.
• Five Below off 23% from August’s high.
• Bath  Body Works down 35% from its Oct 2025 high.

PepsiCo shares are at their lowest levels since April 2020, sliding nearly 15% in three months. The company reports earnings before the market opens Thursday, with CEO Ramon Laguarta appearing on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” at 10 a.m.

Skydance co‑CEOs David Ellison and Ynon Kreiz will join CNBC’s David Faber at 8:45 a.m. Thursday to discuss their recent mega‑merger. The stock is down 6.4% this week and about 14% in October.

Comcast shares have slipped to lows not seen since Oct 2013, closing Wednesday at $20.94—off 36% from February’s high and down 25% year‑to‑date.

Source link