Key Senate contests shaping Social Security’s future

The Senate candidates featured, from bottom left clockwise, include Iowa’s Democratic state representative Josh Turek and Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson, as well as Maine’s Democrat Troy Jackson and Republican incumbent Senator Susan Collins.

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Elected senators will confront a pivotal question before their six‑year terms conclude: how will they strengthen Social Security?

Trustees warn that Social Security’s primary trust fund could be exhausted by the final quarter of 2032, which would trigger a 22% benefit reduction unless Congress acts.

Congress may pursue reforms to avert these automatic reductions or continue postponing a solution.

A recent Peter G. Peterson Foundation poll of voters in competitive Senate races found that 81% would favor a candidate with a concrete plan to prevent automatic Social Security cuts over one who pledges to leave the program untouched.

Despite this voter preference, many Senate candidates’ platforms offer limited detail on how they would address Social Security’s long‑term solvency.

With 35 Senate seats, including special elections in Florida and Ohio, at stake in November, CNBC has highlighted nine contests where candidates have outlined Social Security proposals. The MS NOW rating shows all nine are competitive battlegrounds.

Below is an analysis of those nine races, examining each candidate’s stance on Social Security reform.

ALASKA

Alaska’s contest features incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan and former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola, who served in the House from 2022 to 2025.

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During his most recent term, Sullivan supported the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which introduced a temporary senior tax deduction up to $6,000 per eligible individual. He also backed the Social Security Fairness Act, which ended reductions for certain government retirees’ Social Security checks. Both measures increased program costs while providing relief to beneficiaries.

A September AARP survey found that 90% of older Alaska voters would favor a candidate who guarantees they receive the Social Security benefits they have earned.

In his 2014 Senate campaign, Sullivan indicated he would consider cost‑saving options such as raising the retirement age or instituting means‑testing for benefits—a stance his opponent highlighted in the 2026 race.

Peltola’s platform calls for eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits, and she co‑authored the Social Security Fairness Act. Her campaign says, “Mary will stand up to anyone to fight for Alaska seniors and protect the benefits Alaskans have earned.”

MS NOW rates the race a toss‑up.

IOWA

Iowa’s Senate race features Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson and Democrat state Representative Josh Turek, running for the open seat vacated by retiring Senator Joni Ernst.

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One of the best ways to keep Social Security solvent is we have to remove the cap, Turek said at a Des Moines town hall, referring to the payroll tax limit.

The cap, adjusted annually, will rise to $192,300 in 2027 from $184,500 in 2026. Proposals to raise the cap would generally keep the existing threshold and reapply taxes at higher income levels, such as $250,000 or $400,000.

In an AARP interview, Hinson said anyone proposing Social Security cuts would receive a “hell, no” from her. She also voted on the House Appropriations Committee in 2024 to cut Social Security Administration funding by up to $452 million.

Hinson’s 2020 campaign openness to raising the retirement age has since given way to opposition. In the House she voted for OBBBA and the Social Security Fairness Act.

During an Oct. 13 debate both candidates said they would support a bipartisan commission to address Social Security.

A Social Security field office in Hinson’s Decorah district closed for six months amid staffing concerns. Critics linked the closure to Hinson’s support for DOGE‑backed staffing cuts. Hinson called the closure “unacceptable” in a June 10 statement and said she advocated for its reopening.

Turek said he will protect Social Security by lifting the cap to make billionaires pay their fair share, a campaign spokesperson said in an email to CNBC.com.

Hinson’s office did not respond to CNBC’s requests for comment.

MS NOW rates the race as leaning Republican.

MAINE

Maine’s Senate race pits incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins against Democrat Troy Jackson, former Maine Senate President.

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During an Oct. 8 debate, Collins said the payroll tax cap should be “adjusted,” endorsing a bipartisan‑backed proposal. She also called for Congress to convene a commission of independent financial experts to advise on closing the program’s funding gap.

A September AARP survey shows 81% of Maine voters aged 50+ consider Social Security a decisive issue, and 93% say they would favor a candidate who guarantees workers receive the benefits they have earned.

At the debate, Jackson argued for raising the payroll tax threshold.

In a recent Bangor Daily News op‑ed, Jackson pledged to increase retirees’ Social Security benefits, reject privatization, and oppose benefit cuts. He also stated he will “never support” raising the retirement age.

Collins, who co‑authored the Social Security Fairness Act, voted against the final passage of OBBBA because of its Medicaid cuts, though she supported an earlier procedural motion for the bill. She previously indicated she does not favor raising the retirement age to 70.

Collins’ campaign did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

Jackson’s campaign said he will “scrap the cap,” require the wealthy to pay Social Security taxes on all income, expand benefits, and not raise the retirement age.

MS NOW rates the race a toss‑up.

MICHIGAN

Michigan’s Senate race features former Republican U.S. Representative Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El‑Sayed, who most recently headed Wayne County’s public health department.

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During an Oct. 8 televised debate, El‑Sayed argued that the Social Security payroll tax cap should be eliminated, saying, “It’s only fair that the rich should pay their fair share.” He also called for eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits.

Rogers advocated for a bipartisan committee approach, urging lawmakers to “put them in a room, lock the doors and say, ‘Don’t come out until we have a real solution that can get bipartisan support.’”

An August AARP poll showed 93% of Michigan voters aged 50+ would favor a candidate who guarantees workers receive the Social Security benefits they have earned.

Rogers has not proposed raising the retirement age or privatizing the program in this campaign. However, he previously expressed support for raising the retirement age and, as a congressman, backed proposals to channel a portion of payroll taxes into private investment accounts.

A Rogers campaign spokesperson emailed that he views Social Security as “a lifeline for seniors who’ve spent their entire lives working hard and investing into this state… Mike will ensure that we invest in them.”

El‑Sayed’s campaign did not respond to CNBC.com’s request for comment.

MS NOW rates the race a toss‑up.

NEBRASKA

Nebraska’s Senate contest includes incumbent Republican Senator Pete Ricketts and independent candidate Dan Osborn, a labor union leader endorsed by state Democrats.

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Ricketts has said Social Security benefits should be “completely tax‑free.” As governor he signed a 2022 law phasing out state taxes on benefits and has introduced a similar federal measure, pending in committee. He also voted for OBBBA, a move that, while aiding recipients, reduces program revenue.

Ricketts emailed, “Nebraskans reaching retirement age deserve to receive the benefits they have earned. I am committed to protecting our seniors’ benefits and working to improve the Social Security program for all Americans.”

Osborn advocates for raising or eliminating the payroll tax cap to extend Social Security’s solvency. His campaign states, “The solution is very simple — remove the Social Security cap, so everyone pays their fair share.”

Osborn also opposes benefit cuts, raising the retirement age, and privatization of the program.

MS NOW rates the race as likely Republican.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

New Hampshire’s Senate race features Democrat U.S. Representative Chris Pappas and Republican former Senator John Sununu, both seasoned members of Congress. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen is not seeking reelection.

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Pappas, a representative since 2019, says on his campaign website he will “never vote to cut benefits.” He argued at an August event that high earners should pay their “fair share” into the program. At an Oct. 14 AARP forum, Pappas noted that seniors deserve a raise, stating Social Security cost‑of‑living adjustments have lagged behind the true cost of living.

Pappas voted for the Social Security Fairness Act but opposed OBBBA due to its cuts to Medicaid and other safety‑net programs.

Sununu, who has served in both the Senate and House, backed proposals during the George W. Bush administration to redirect a portion of payroll taxes into private investment accounts. Pappas has accused Sununu of leading privatization efforts, a claim PolitiFact rated “mostly true,” noting Sununu’s proposals were voluntary and limited by age. Sununu claimed in an August interview that such a plan would have made the program solvent today.

At the AARP forum, Sununu declared, “I never voted to change or reduce or cut benefits.”

Sununu’s campaign did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment. Pappas’s campaign referred CNBC to his comments on Social Security during the recent AARP forum.

MS NOW rates the contest as leaning Democrat.

NORTH CAROLINA

North Carolina’s Senate race features former Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, and former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley. Both candidates have highlighted Social Security in their campaigns.

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Cooper told AARP in September that some lawmakers are “undermining” Social Security by granting tax breaks to the wealthy. He pledged, “In the U.S. Senate, I’ll work with anyone I can to protect and strengthen the program.”

A September AARP poll shows 83% of North Carolina voters aged 50+ consider Social Security a decisive issue, and 93% say they would favor a candidate who guarantees workers receive the benefits they have earned.

Whatley told AARP his top priority is to “preserve and protect” Social Security and that he will oppose any proposal that “takes away anything from what is owed” to beneficiaries. He called for bipartisan congressional action to improve the program’s solvency.

Whatley’s campaign did not respond to CNBC’s requests for comment.

A Cooper campaign spokesperson emailed that he will work to protect and strengthen Social Security benefits for current and future generations.

MS NOW rates the race as leaning Democrat.

OHIO

Ohio’s Senate race includes former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, seeking a comeback, and incumbent Republican Senator Jon Husted. The special election will fill the remaining two years of the term once held by Vice President JD Vance.

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As a senator, Brown championed expanding and protecting Social Security benefits and co‑authored the Social Security Fairness Act.

A June AARP poll found 83% of Ohio voters aged 50+ say Social Security positions will influence their vote.

In an October AARP voter‑guide video, Brown opposed privatizing Social Security and said, “We need to make sure that billionaires are paying their fair share by raising the tax cap so we can extend the life of the program.”

Husted emphasized the need for “genuine bipartisan solutions” to address Social Security in his AARP video.

Husted voted for OBBBA and introduced a constitutional amendment to balance the federal budget, a proposal critics warn could trigger large Social Security cuts.

Both campaigns provided limited further detail when asked about their Social Security plans.

MS NOW rates the race a toss‑up.

TEXAS

Texas’s Senate contest features Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Representative James Talarico, a former middle school teacher. Voters will decide between the two in November.

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Talarico said he would eliminate the Social Security payroll tax cap for earners above $400,000, stating, “I’ll ensure the wealthiest Americans pay their fair share into Social Security.”

A September AARP poll shows 91% of Texas voters aged 50+ would support a candidate who advocates for workers receiving the full Social Security benefits they have earned.

Paxton told AARP that Washington “has no business cutting” Social Security benefits and pledged to “root out” waste, fraud, and abuse in the program.

Paxton was quoted in a leaked audio saying, “There’s no doubt we have to cut some of the mandatory spending,” with the Texas Tribune noting Social Security is a mandatory program. Paxton later told the newspaper he would protect Social Security.

Paxton’s campaign did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

A Talarico spokesperson said the candidate will “stand up” against attacks on Social Security and “fight to ensure all Americans can afford to retire.”

MS NOW rates the race a toss‑up.

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