Latvia Election Exit Polls Favor Pro-European Continuity Amid Populist Surge

RIGA, October 4 — Exit polls released Saturday evening from Latvia’s parliamentary election favor Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ party, indicating the Baltic nation will likely maintain its pro-European and pro-Ukrainian trajectory.

However, populist parties also enjoyed a strong night, capitalizing on a campaign dominated by anxieties regarding neighboring Russia and the rising cost of living.

According to exit data from public broadcaster LSM, Kulbergs’ center-right United List secured a commanding 35.6 percent of the vote.

“It’s not the end still, but its higher than expected,” Kulbergs told journalists following the announcement. “That means people truly want change,” he added, describing his victory mandate as one for “economic growth” and “a future for (Latvia’s) children”. Kulbergs assumed the premiership in May.

Despite the strong showing, his existing coalition appears unlikely to survive. One partner, the Union of Greens and Farmers, finished with only 3.7 percent — falling below the five-percent threshold required to enter parliament. Combined with projections for other coalition members, this suggests Kulbergs will need to negotiate a new ruling coalition.

While exit polls are generally reliable, voter reluctance to admit support for radical parties could mean underestimating the final numbers. “I do believe that the biggest increase (of the) actual results, compared to the exit polls, will be to the… Russian-speaking electorate’s supported parties, which are the Sovereign Power and Latvia First,” said Roberts Kits, an analyst at the Latvian think tank LaSER.

Sigita Struberga, secretary general of the Latvian transatlantic association LATO, cautioned that it was premature to predict the shape of a future coalition. “We really need to wait for (the) real percentage, which might be slightly different from what we see at this point,” she noted.

Security Versus Economics

Security was the dominant theme of the campaign in Latvia, an EU and NATO member on the eastern flank of both blocs. Yet populist parties gained traction by prioritizing domestic issues such as the cost of living in the least affluent of the Baltic states.

Sovereign Power, criticized by detractors as pro-Russian, finished fourth with 10.8 percent. The party has opposed military aid to Ukraine and further increases to defense spending, emphasizing domestic economic problems instead. Despite its gains, it is unlikely to enter government, as most major parties have ruled out cooperation.

Another populist force, Latvia First, led by businessman Ainars Slesers, finished second with 11.3 percent and could prove a more viable coalition partner.

The Progressives, a pro-European social democratic party advocating stronger social protections and continued support for Ukraine, finished third at 11.1 percent.

Geopolitics and Economics

Security remains central to political debate four years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Latvia, which joined NATO and the EU in 2004, views Moscow as its principal security threat and has significantly raised defense spending in response, now allocating nearly five percent of GDP to the sector.

Most parties expected to enter parliament back both high military spending and maintaining aid to Kyiv. However, rising living costs, low wages, strains on the health care system, and long-term population decline featured prominently in campaign debates.

Voting patterns among Latvia’s large Russian-speaking minority are also shifting. Once concentrated behind the Harmony party, which lost parliamentary representation in 2022, many voters are increasingly making choices based on economic and social issues rather than identity politics alone.

“Because we are the external border of Europe, we must have a strong economy, a strong Latgale, a strong border region,” Kulbergs said. “That is the main task.”

Preliminary official results are expected on Sunday, at which point attention will shift to coalition talks, which could prove lengthy and complex.

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