A senior Latvian defense official stated that while a full-scale Russian attack on a NATO country is deemed improbable, there are concerns that Russia might conduct smaller operations to gauge European responses.
Airis Rikveilis, Latvia’s state secretary for defense, explained to Breaking Defense that the focus is on various potential tactics rather than a specific attack scenario.
Rikveilis, speaking at the AUSA conference, remarked that Latvians are not easily surprised by Russian capabilities, emphasizing that nothing they do would astonish his people regarding their objectives.
He noted that Russia currently lacks the substantial military forces necessary for a large-scale assault, making such an attack unlikely.
However, Rikveilis believes Russia might be tempted to test European readiness through smaller-scale actions.
This warning aligns with previous alerts from European officials about Russia potentially testing NATO’s resolve, though Moscow has dismissed such concerns as threats.
Rikveilis connected these concerns to increasing illegal migration issues along Latvia’s 276-kilometer border with Russia and 161-kilometer border with Belarus.
He reported nearly 12,000 illegal entry attempts, with some involving underground tunnels.
Rikveilis highlighted that the typical intruder is a young male of conscription age, not genuinely seeking refuge.
Belsat TV reported that the first tunnel crossing was discovered on August 10, with 15 people entering from Belarus, followed by a second tunnel days later with 28 individuals, coinciding with 109 border crossing attempts that day.
To combat this, Latvia has launched a national operation coordinating border guards and military for enhanced surveillance.
Rikveilis described the crossings as organized and professionally executed, with tunnels being well-constructed rather than makeshift.
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