Lawson’s 2026 Surge Puts Red Bull on Notice for 2027 Lineup

Through 14 races of the 2026 season, Liam Lawson has emerged as a standout performer in Formula 1’s midfield, amassing 83 points — nearly double the tally of his nearest rival, Pierre Gasly, who sits on 42. Notably, that production exceeds his output during his brief Red Bull stint, where he averaged 4.67 points per race compared to 4.31 at Racing Bulls.

Despite this strong showing, Lawson’s seat at the Faenza-based team — and his place on the F1 grid for 2027 — remains uncertain. Formula 2 title contender Nikola Tsolov is reportedly the frontrunner for the second Racing Bulls seat, having secured six victories in the first 14 rounds. However, his qualifying pace has lagged behind main rivals, and he has failed to podium in his last 11 contests. Still, Tsolov trails championship leader Rafael Camara by just seven points, keeping his title hopes alive.

While Arvid Lindblad has impressed in his F1 rookie campaign, Lawson holds the edge in teammate battles. In qualifying, he leads their head-to-head 12-6, with a 0.072-second advantage — dropping to 9-5 and a 0.027s gap when excluding the unrepresentative Melbourne session and omitting sprint qualifying. More tellingly, Lawson is 0.141s faster on average in race trim. Over the past month, he has proven not only competitive but also a reliable hand, going unoutqualified on merit since his return from Red Bull, where he lapped 0.257s faster on average than Lindblad.

Lawson has collected 24 points across the last four grands prix — more than Hadjar and George Russell. A grid penalty in Malaysia and a collision with Oscar Piastri in Mexico have hindered Lindblad, who managed only a single point in the same span.

Red Bull faces a pivotal 2027 decision: do Lawson’s recent performances indicate he merits a return to the senior team? If not, Tsolov may yet get his chance — perhaps via Super Formula, the pathway that previously led Pierre Gasly and Lawson himself to F1. But if Milton Keynes sees no realistic route back for Lawson, retaining him at Racing Bulls becomes less tenable, opening the door for Tsolov to shine.

Lawson continues to face the same question with every points finish. After Mexico’s race, he was asked if it was a shame his seat remained uncertain despite the significant gap to Lindblad. “It’s obviously a massive shame, but it’s something that I’m just having to deal with at the moment,” he responded. “I’m obviously trying to do everything I can each time I get in the race car.”

Only time will tell if that approach will suffice.

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