In Beirut, Lebanon and Israel are conducting fresh negotiations in Rome under U.S. mediation on Tuesday, amid heightened regional tensions involving Washington and Tehran.
After five rounds of talks in Washington, the two nations, which have been at war for decades, reached a framework agreement on June 26 aimed at ending the conflict between Israel and Iran‑backed Hezbollah and laying the groundwork for peace.
Hezbollah, however, rejects the deal, which requires its disarmament and stipulates that implementation will commence with Israel’s withdrawal from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon.
Lebanon’s presidency announced on Monday that its Rome delegation was instructed to demand an immediate Israeli withdrawal from the two pilot zones before any further talks.
A Lebanese diplomatic source said the Lebanese army is prepared to gradually assume control of the localities from which Israeli forces would withdraw.
Analyst Orna Mizrahi of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv told AFP that Israel is willing to withdraw gradually, provided that Hezbollah has no presence in the areas being vacated.
She added that Israel also wants to guarantee that the Lebanese army can maintain the area as a neutralized zone where Hezbollah cannot re‑enter.
A U.S. military delegation started talks with the Lebanese army in Beirut on Saturday concerning the process for Israel’s withdrawal from one of the pilot zones.
Limited prospects
The framework agreement was reached after a fragile ceasefire took effect in the Hezbollah‑Israel war.
Israel’s army, however, has continued limited strikes in the south and has been demolishing villages it occupies, according to official Lebanese media.
Since the war began in early March, Israeli strikes and ground operations have killed over 4,300 people, according to Lebanese authorities.
Karim Bitar, a Sciences Po Paris lecturer, said the likelihood of a breakthrough in Rome is low, suggesting instead that the talks may serve to demonstrate that negotiations are still ongoing despite opposition and emerging obstacles.
Tehran had demanded a ceasefire in Lebanon to enable it to sign a memorandum of understanding with Washington on June 17.
Nevertheless, the region has experienced renewed escalation, with the United States conducting a third consecutive night of strikes against Iran ahead of the scheduled reinstatement on Tuesday of its naval blockade of Iranian ports.
Iran seeks to link the Lebanon negotiations with the broader regional war, but we wish to disconnect them, Mizrahi of the INSS said.
She noted that Tehran’s current priorities are the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear issue.
The Iranians are using Lebanon as an excuse, and they will continue to do so.
Hezbollah drew Lebanon into the regional war on March 2 by launching missiles in support of Iran.
Bitar added that the risk of major fighting returning to Lebanon due to the regional escalation is, of course, not negligible.
He said that Iran is likely to think twice before urging Hezbollah to launch new strikes against Israel, noting that Tehran aims to keep Hezbollah as a long‑term deterrent and prefers not to open a new front immediately.
