The short‑term Elliott Wave analysis of Light Crude Oil (CL) indicates an unfinished bearish sequence that began at the September 16, 2026 peak. The pattern shows a clear downward bias and defines the current market structure. From the September 16 high, oil fell in a five‑wave impulsive move. Wave ((i)) completed at $99.10, followed by a corrective rally in wave ((ii)) to $103.48. The decline resumed in wave ((iii)), finishing at $94.22, then a modest rebound in wave ((iv)) stalled near $96.85. The final leg, wave ((v)), concluded at $88.71, completing wave 1 at a higher degree.
After wave 1, oil entered a corrective wave 2, which unfolded as a zigzag and reached $96.78. The subsequent drop broke below the low of wave 1, confirming the start of a new bearish phase. From the peak of wave 2, wave ((i)) dipped to $91.51, a rally in wave ((ii)) climbed to $96.54, after which sellers regained control, reinforcing the bearish outlook. The near‑term bias remains to the downside. As long as oil trades below $106.71, any rally is expected to fail within three or seven swings, aligning with the incomplete sequence and suggesting further declines are likely. A potential target can be estimated using a 100%–161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave 1, projecting a range of $67 to $78.
Light Crude Oil 60 Minute Elliott Wave Chart
