Bank earnings commence this week as at least seven of the largest financial institutions prepare to release their results. With the S&P 500 approaching record levels, these reports could serve as a major market catalyst.
The financial sector ranks as the third‑worst performing component of the S&P 500 in 2026. Although its year‑to‑date performance is essentially flat, the options market is factoring in substantial potential moves as investors assess the effects of rising interest rates and tightening consumer finances.
The options market’s outlook, based on the latest Cboe LiveVol data, indicates the following expectations.
Goldman Sachs – Tuesday, Oct. 13
Options traders anticipate a 2.84% price swing for Goldman Sachs following its earnings release. Over the past eight quarters, the stock has risen or fallen by roughly 2% on average, with only three quarters delivering negative reactions; the latest was a 1.87% decline in April.
JPMorgan – Tuesday, Oct. 13
Analysts expect a comparable 2.5% implied move for JPMorgan after earnings, matching its eight‑quarter average of 2.22%. While recent results have been less encouraging, the stock rose 2.5% after July’s report—its first upward reaction since April 2025, when it posted a 4% gain.
Citigroup – Tuesday, Oct. 13
Citigroup enters Tuesday’s earnings announcement having risen 11% year‑to‑date, the top performer among this week’s reporters. The options market forecasts a modest 3% move in either direction, lower than its eight‑quarter average of 3.8%. Nevertheless, the prior quarter saw the stock fall 5.3% despite an implied 3.5% move.
Wells Fargo – Tuesday, Oct. 13
Wells Fargo concludes Tuesday’s major banking earnings slate, a company striving to regain investor confidence. Its share price is down 10% year‑to‑date and has missed the past three earnings reports, including a 5% decline in April. Options currently imply a 3.5% move in either direction, below its eight‑quarter average of 5.6%.
Bank of America – Wednesday, Oct. 14
The options market expects Bank of America to potentially turn positive after Wednesday’s earnings, which would mark its third consecutive post‑report gain. The implied move stands at 2.9% either way, exceeding the 1.8% average swing seen over its last eight quarters.
Morgan Stanley – Wednesday, Oct. 14
Morgan Stanley has maintained an impressive earnings record, with its stock falling only once in the past eight quarters—a 1.3% dip in July 2025. Options now anticipate a 3% move in either direction, compared with its eight‑quarter average of 4.3%. A higher close on Wednesday would extend its streak to five consecutive gains.
BlackRock – Wednesday, Oct. 14
A rise would also mark the fifth consecutive post‑earnings advance for BlackRock, which surged nearly 7% after July’s report. Its most recent negative reaction occurred in July, when the stock dropped 6%. Options presently suggest a 3.3% move in either direction, below its eight‑quarter average of 4.4%.
