Major U.S. Banks Kick Off Q3 Earnings Season Amid Market Volatility

The largest U.S. financial institutions are set to report third-quarter results this week, offering an early gauge of corporate health against a backdrop of market turbulence. JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo release figures on Tuesday, followed by Morgan Stanley and Bank of America on Wednesday. The reports arrive as the S&P 500 hovers near record highs but faces headwinds from climbing Treasury yields and elevated oil prices, fueling speculation over the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory. Twenty-five S&P 500 components are scheduled to report this week. All times referenced are Eastern Time.

Tuesday

JPMorgan Chase

Schedule: Earnings before the opening bell; conference call at 8:30 a.m.

Context: Last quarter, the bank posted a 41% year-over-year surge in earnings. Analysts anticipate double-digit earnings growth for the current period.

Key Focus: Seaport Research Partners maintains a cautious stance, noting that while net interest income (NII) forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been raised on a higher forward curve, expense projections sit above consensus and may be guided higher. Historically, JPMorgan has beaten earnings estimates 82% of the time, per Bespoke Investment Group, though shares have declined following four of the last five releases.

Goldman Sachs

Schedule: Earnings before the open; conference call at 9:30 a.m.

Context: The firm previously reported a 55% jump in investment banking fees. LSEG data projects roughly 10% revenue growth and 6% earnings growth year-over-year.

Key Focus: TD Cowen recently initiated coverage with a Buy rating, arguing Goldman’s scale positions it to capitalize on favorable capital markets and that the firm has solidified its foundation. The bank has topped earnings expectations for 12 consecutive quarters, with the stock rallying 9% after the last report.

Citigroup

Schedule: Earnings in the premarket; management call at 11:00 a.m.

Context: Last quarter delivered the highest quarterly revenue in a decade. Analysts forecast sharp year-over-year earnings growth.

Key Focus: Jefferies analyst David Chiaverini rates the stock a Buy, citing improving returns driven by broad-based revenue growth, disciplined expenses, and rising capital returns. He believes this should drive a re-rating of the “cheapest money center bank.” Historically, Citigroup shares have dropped after two of the last three earnings releases.

Wells Fargo

Schedule: Earnings before the bell; conference call at 10:00 a.m.

Context: The bank beat Street estimates last quarter. LSEG projects earnings growth exceeding 10%.

Key Focus: Shares have slid 13% over the past month—the steepest decline among major U.S. banks—placing pressure on the report to catalyze a recovery. While earnings have exceeded estimates for 10 straight quarters, Bespoke data shows the stock fell after seven of those releases.

Wednesday

Morgan Stanley

Schedule: Earnings in the premarket; analyst call at 9:30 a.m.

Context: The firm previously notched record quarterly revenue on strong equities trading. The top line is expected to grow nearly 10% per LSEG.

Key Focus: Citizens analyst Devin Ryan holds a Market Perform rating. He expects trading revenue to normalize from the second quarter’s peak without surrendering franchise gains, though he lowered investment banking forecasts due to fewer completed transactions. Shares have risen after the last four earnings reports, including a 5.8% jump following Q4 2023 results.

Bank of America

Schedule: Earnings before the open; conference call at 8:30 a.m.

Context: Last quarter’s beat was fueled partly by strong net interest income. Analysts polled by LSEG expect single-digit year-over-year growth for both earnings and revenue.

Key Focus: Barclays maintains an Overweight rating but anticipates mixed results. Analyst Jason Goldberg projects a 2% quarter-over-quarter rise in NII with continued loan and deposit growth, while flagging potential lag in trading and investment banking fees relative to peers. Bespoke data indicates Bank of America beats earnings estimates 81% of the time; the stock averages a 0.6% decline on earnings days but has risen after the last two releases.

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