Key Takeaways
- Prediction market participants anticipate further declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum amid a broader sell‑off.
- Current odds heavily favor a drop to $55,000 for BTC and $1,500 for ETH before any potential recovery.
- Analysts suggest that the short‑term trajectory could hinge on STRC performance, the preferred equity issuance by Bitcoin giant Strategy.
Prediction market traders are increasingly bearish on near‑term price movements for Bitcoin and Ethereum, foreseeing a downward trajectory to $55,000 and $1,500, respectively.
On Myriad, a prediction‑market platform run by Dastan—Decrypt’s parent—set the odds at 77 % for Bitcoin to fall to $55,000 before rallying to $80,000 and at 88 % for Ethereum to dip to $1,500 before climbing to $3,000 as markets sell off on Thursday.
The bearish bias has intensified over the past month, with the odds of Bitcoin falling to $55,000 surging 44 % on Myriad. Bitcoin is currently trading around $59,511—a roughly 1 % decline in the past 24 hours and a 23 % drop over the month. Earlier Thursday, it hit about $58,000, its lowest level since 2024.
The downturn is similarly reflected in traditional markets, with shares of Strategy (MSTR), the leading Bitcoin treasury firm, falling nearly 7 % since Thursday’s market open, trading around $88.
Over the last month, the company’s shares have declined by roughly 45 %, and its preferred equity, STRC—intended to trade near a $100 par value—has fallen 22 % to around $77. STRC reached an all‑time low of $73.62 shortly after Thursday’s opening bell.
“On a short‑term basis, STRC is the tail wagging the Bitcoin dog,” Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan told Decrypt.
“While macro‑economic headwinds such as inflation worries and potential rate hikes loom, the market remains fixated on STRC trading in the $70s,” he added. “Investors fear Strategy may spiral into a death‑trap and be compelled to liquidate Bitcoin holdings. This sentiment will probably persist until Strategy clarifies its strategy to address the shortfall.”
With fears translating into price action, analysts suggest that the firm’s optimal course may involve strengthening its cash reserves, thereby extending its dividend runway and reassuring uneasy investors.
Ethereum, the second‑largest digital asset, has also receded, falling to $1,576—a 2.6 % decline over 24 hours and a 25 % drop over the past month. At present, ETH sits only 5.2 % above its $1,500 resolution point on Myriad. Hougan notes that ETH is largely collateral damage in the STRC saga.
Other prediction markets echo this long‑term bearish sentiment. Kalshi’s 2026 price‑floor contracts assign BTC a 36 % probability of falling below $40,000, and ETH a 34 % probability of slipping beneath $1,000.
Bitcoin is now almost 53 % below its all‑time high of $126,080 reached last October, while ETH is more than 68 % off its peak of $4,946 recorded in August.
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