Marvell Technology’s XConn Acquisition Drives Analyst Price Target Upgrades

Quick Read

• MRVL has declined 32% from its peak, but a $2B NVIDIA investment and a positive FY2027 outlook support our $264 price target.

• AVGO holds a $1.78T market cap with 48% revenue growth, while CRDO, a pure-play interconnect peer, reports 157% YoY growth.

Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) saw its stock price stabilize after closing the XConn Technologies acquisition on February 10, 2026. Chiplet connectivity, once a secondary focus, has become central to the AI data center narrative, prompting analysts to raise price targets.

Our price target stands at $264.31, reflecting a 40% upside from the current $188.30. This recommendation is backed by NVIDIA’s $2B investment and revised FY2027 guidance.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

From $329 to $188: Understanding the Correction

Marvell surged 121.9% year-to-date but corrected steeply. Shares fell 22.58% in the past week and 32.41% monthly from a $329.80 peak, partly due to hyperscaler spending concerns and post-S&P 500 inclusion profit-taking.

Fundamentals remain robust. Q1 FY2027 revenue reached $2.418 billion, up 27.6% YoY, with data center revenue at $1.833 billion (76% of total sales). CEO Matt Murphy projected Q2 revenue at $2.7 billion, signaling 35% YoY growth and upward revisions for FY2027 and FY2028.

The XConn deal, combined with Celestial AI’s February 2, 2026, acquisition and NVIDIA’s $2B strategic investment (announced July 6, 2026), positions Marvell deeply within the NVLink ecosystem.

Why Analysts Target $350+

Marvell now rivals Broadcom as a leader in custom AI silicon. KeyBanc, BofA, and Stifel have raised targets following the Teralynx T100 launch, with Seeking Alpha projecting custom ASIC revenue growth to $4B by 2028.

Our bull case signals $349.35 in 12 months, an 85.5% return. Catalysts include additional guidance revisions, deeper NVLink integration, or Celestial AI’s photonic fabric production. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang has referred to Marvell as “the next trillion-dollar company.”

Risks to Consider

Marvell’s high valuation (trailing P/E 66, forward P/E 54) and quarterly earnings drop of 80.4% YoY stem from a $331.8M contingent consideration fee and $207.6M in deal-related stock-based compensation.

Concentration risk is significant: 76% of revenue comes from data centers. A slowdown in hyperscaler spending would severely impact performance. GuruFocus estimates fair value at $109–$111, but our bear case targets $201.57.

Marvell vs. Broadcom and Credo

Broadcom ($AVGO) leads in AI silicon with $10.8B AI revenue (up 143% YoY) but operates at a $1.78T scale. Credo ($CRDO), a pure-play interconnect, grew 157% YoY but lacks Marvell’s diversification.

On a growth-adjusted basis, Marvell’s forward multiples appear fair relative to peers.

Navigating the Dip Strategically

Our $264.31 target and buy rating, supported by NVIDIA’s investment and revised guidance, reflect confidence in Marvell’s execution of custom ASIC, optical, and chiplet strategies.