Mercedes has returned to dominance in the 2026 Formula 1 season and is on course to secure its first double championship (both drivers’ and constructors’ titles) since the COVID‑affected 2020 campaign.
Kimi Antonelli leads the drivers’ standings with a 102‑point gap over teammate George Russell, while in the constructors’ table the Silver Arrows hold a 134‑point advantage over Ferrari.
Eleven of the 17 Grands Prix this year have been won by Mercedes, most of those victories coming early in the season as rivals closed the gap later on. This early surge has put the team in a strong position under the new regulations.
The result means Mercedes is set to claim its first drivers’ title since 2020, ending a period of Max Verstappen and Lando Norris dominance, and its first constructors’ crown since 2021 after being overtaken by Red Bull and McLaren during the ground‑effect era. With six races remaining, the team’s title hopes remain alive.
Antonelli could seal his maiden world championship in Austin, though the most likely scenario is a confirmation a week later in Mexico. The constructors’ title, however, may have to wait beyond those two races.
How many teams can still win the F1 2026 world title?
Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes, Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari
Photo by: James Sutton / LAT Images via Getty Images
A total of 258 points remain on offer in the constructors’ championship, provided the Qatar and Abu Dhabi rounds proceed. Four teams still have a mathematical chance: Mercedes leads Ferrari by 134 points, McLaren by 239 points and Red Bull by 246 points, while fifth‑placed Racing Bulls trails by 478 points.
Position
Team
Points
1
Mercedes
578
2
Ferrari
444
3
McLaren
339
4
Red Bull
332
5
Racing Bulls
100
6
Alpine
68
7
Haas
30
8
Audi
23
9
Williams
12
10
Aston Martin
7
11
Cadillac
0
Can Mercedes win the F1 2026 world title at the US GP?
When F1 returns to Austin next weekend, 215 points will still be available in the constructors’ championship. This scenario is likely to eliminate McLaren and Red Bull from contention, as they would need to finish within 214 points after the Texas race to stay alive. Mercedes holds a nine‑win advantage over both squads, so even if McLaren and Red Bull close the gap to 215 points in Texas, a countback on victories would keep them out of the title fight.
For McLaren and Red Bull to derail Mercedes, they would need to outscore the German team by at least 25 and 32 points respectively. Ferrari remains the only realistic challenger, as the Scuderia will stay within 214 points of Mercedes regardless of the Austin outcome, meaning the constructors’ title will not be decided at the United States Grand Prix.
When can Mercedes win the F1 2026 world title?
Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes
Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Sutton Images via Getty Images
The worst‑case scenario for Ferrari in Austin would be a double non‑points finish, allowing Mercedes to secure a 1‑2 finish and extend its lead to 177 points. Even under that unlikely circumstance, the German marque would go to Mexico City with a realistic chance of clinching its ninth constructors’ title, tying Williams on the all‑time list behind Ferrari (16) and McLaren (10). With 172 points still on offer across the four races after Mexico, Mercedes would only need to ensure Ferrari does not outscore it by at least six points in Mexico.
Mercedes has never won a Grand Prix where Ferrari scored zero points this season, as the following table shows (sprint races are not part of the 2026 calendar).
Grand Prix
Mercedes points haul
Ferrari points haul
Australia
43
27
China
43
27
Japan
37
23
Miami
37
12
Canada
25
30
Monaco
25
18
Barcelona
18
25
Austria
40
14
United Kingdom
18
40
Belgium
25
30
Hungary
21
22
Netherlands
33
22
Italy
43
8
Spain
35
12
Azerbaijan
35
20
Malaysia
18
27
Singapore
17
26
Overall, Mercedes has outscored Ferrari by an average of 7.6 points across the 17 races held so far. Maintaining that average over the next two events would still leave a 149‑point gap, making a Mexico victory a steep ask. Consequently, the most likely venue for the Silver Arrows to become world champions appears to be the subsequent Grand Prix in Brazil.
