September Nymex natural gas (NGU26) on Monday closed down -0.043 (-1.57%).
Nat‑gas prices fell to a one‑week low on Monday and settled lower as U.S. weather forecasts shifted cooler, potentially reducing demand from electricity providers that power air conditioning. The Commodity Weather Group said the outlook turned cooler, with average to below‑average temperatures expected across the eastern U.S. from August 22‑31.
As a bearish factor, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that U.S. nat‑gas storage levels will swell to 3,985 bcf at the end of October, the highest level in 10 years and 5 % above the five‑year average. Inventories are currently 6.7 % above their five‑year seasonal average, indicating robust supplies.
Additional pressure came from Energy Transfer’s August 4 announcement that the Hugh Brinson pipeline will reach its full capacity of 1.5 bcf/day by September 1, allowing more Permian‑Basin gas to flow to the Henry Hub and boosting domestic supplies.
A medium‑term bearish influence is speculation that a strong El Niño could bring warmer‑than‑normal temperatures to the Northern Hemisphere this fall and winter, reducing heating demand.
U.S. (lower‑48) dry‑gas production on Monday was 114.1 bcf/day (+4.1 % y/y), according to BNEF. Lower‑48 gas demand on Monday was 82.5 bcf/day (+5.1 % y/y), and estimated LNG net flows to U.S. export terminals were 18.9 bcf/day (+2.3 % w/w), per BNEF.
Positive news came from the Edison Electric Institute, which reported that U.S. electricity output in the week ended August 8 rose 7.0 % y/y to 99,864 GWh. Over the 52‑week period ending August 8, electricity output increased 2.3 % y/y to 4,357,109 GWh.
Last Thursday’s bearish weekly EIA report showed a 36 bcf increase in U.S. nat‑gas inventories for the week ended August 7—larger than the 31 bcf expected and the five‑year weekly average of 33 bcf. As of August 7, inventories were down 1.0 % y/y but 6.7 % above the seasonal average. European gas storage stood at 61 % of capacity, compared with a five‑year average of 78 % for this time.
Baker Hughes reported that the number of active U.S. nat‑gas drilling rigs rose by four to 128 in the week ended August 14, modestly below the three‑year high of 134 set in February 2026.
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