Moderna’s 127% Rally Sparks Debate: Is It Too Late to Buy?

Key Points

• Moderna has staged a remarkable recovery, climbing roughly sixfold over the past year and surging about 127% in just a few weeks.
• The biotech firm recently disclosed encouraging data that could have significant consequences for its shift into oncology.
• Even though the pandemic‑era leader has rebounded, the stock may experience pullbacks as the market calibrates its future value.

Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) shares have staged a remarkable recovery this year, climbing nearly sixfold over the past 12 months. Once a leading COVID‑19 vaccine developer, the company is now gaining traction from advances in its non‑COVID pipeline. The latest jump—roughly 127% in a matter of weeks—reflects a breakthrough for the biotech firm. The critical question is whether the stock can sustain, let alone extend, these gains.

Image source: Getty Images.

Moderna and its cancer‑vaccine super rally

After the pandemic, investors largely abandoned what had been one of the most‑watched biotech names, doubting the firm’s ability to leverage its mRNA platform beyond COVID‑19. However, as Moderna demonstrated progress with its Intismeran Autogene vaccine candidate, sentiment shifted from bearish to bullish, turning the stock into a dramatic comeback story. On August 19, Moderna, together with pharmaceutical partner Merck (NYSE: MRK), announced positive top‑line results from the Phase 3 INTerpath‑001 trial, which combined Intismeran Autogene with Merck’s Keytruda for patients with Stage IIB‑IV melanoma.

Separating substance from hype

Moderna’s rally following the INTerpath‑001 results was understandable. The trial data suggest the company can effectively apply its mRNA technology to oncology, a market of enormous potential, which logically justifies a higher valuation. Yet investors should keep two caveats in mind. First, the surge was amplified by a short‑squeeze; the shares initially jumped as much as 175% before pulling back, and further cooling of excitement could continue to weigh on the price. Second, while personalized cancer vaccines could be transformative, commercializing these mRNA‑based oncology products remains years away. With a market capitalization near $60 billion, projected 2026 revenues of about $2.1 billion, a share price around $140–$145, and an estimated loss of $8.55 per share this year, much of the future oncology promise appears already priced in. Even if you are optimistic about the turnaround, it may be prudent to wait for a pullback before adding to a position.

Should you buy Moderna stock now?

Before buying Moderna shares, investors should carefully weigh the recent momentum against the valuation and the lengthy path to profitability before committing capital.

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