Mortgage Interest Rates Hold Steady on September 3 After Sharp Weekly Climb

Mortgage interest rates remained largely unchanged this morning, holding near yesterday’s levels. While the day-over-day shift is minimal, the week-over-week movement tells a more dramatic story.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage slipped to 6.73% APR, based on figures provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This represents a one-basis-point decline from yesterday but a 22-basis-point increase compared to last week. A basis point equals one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

That marks a substantial jump from last Thursday. Renewed strikes between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend pushed rates higher, though they were already trending upward before the latest escalation in overseas conflict.

Average mortgage rates, last 30 days

Kate on Rates: August 27, 2026

What influences mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.

Recently, mortgage rates have had little reason to move in any direction other than up.

Last Wednesday, July’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index was released. Commonly known as PCE, this serves as the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation — and higher inflation generally translates to higher mortgage rates.

PCCE came in roughly in line with forecasts. No surprises meant no significant impact on mortgage rates. That said, the reading was far from encouraging. The Fed targets a 2% inflation rate in the PCE index; July’s figure came in at 3.7%, well above that benchmark. (It’s worth noting that inflation has remained above the 2% target since March 2021.) While the report could have been worse, it offered little cause for optimism.

Then on Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first major speech in the role at the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Warsh had previously refrained from offering forward guidance or sharing his outlook on the economy, generating anticipation that his remarks might provide new clarity.

Ultimately, they did not. However, markets interpreted the speech as a signal that the Fed is preparing to address inflation at its upcoming meeting later this month. The CME Group’s implied odds of a September rate hike stood at roughly 36% a week ago; today they hover near 65%.

Warsh’s comments included firm language on inflation, though that has become standard at his press appearances. Still, many observers concluded that a rate increase at the September meeting is increasingly likely. Raising the federal funds rate — the overnight borrowing rate set by the Fed — remains the central bank’s primary tool for controlling inflation.
Mortgage rates showed little reaction to Wednesday’s PCE release, but Friday’s remarks from Warsh triggered a more pronounced response. Rates surged following the speech and continued climbing as the week began with renewed conflict involving Iran. Mortgage rates respond to overseas developments primarily through their effect on bond yields, as oil price concerns and broader inflation fears push the 10-year Treasury yield higher. Since mortgage rates are closely tied to this benchmark, they tend to move in tandem.

Shifting to domestic economic news, this week brings fresh labor market data. Yesterday, payroll processor ADP released its latest employment report, covering private-sector hiring for August.

The results were underwhelming. ADP reported that private employers added just 38,000 jobs last month — the slowest pace of job growth since January — and significantly below consensus expectations.

Friday morning will bring the August Employment Situation Summary, widely referred to as the jobs report. Published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, this report encompasses both public and private sector employment, providing a broader view of the labor market than ADP’s private-sector focus.

July’s jobs report fell well short of projections. Economists had forecast job gains ranging from 83,000 to 97,500, depending on the source. Instead, the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, with May and June figures also revised downward.

Hopes remain that July represented an anomaly, with consensus estimates for August pointing to roughly 50,000 new jobs. A disappointing August reading, however, could alter the Federal Reserve’s calculus. The Fed raises rates to combat inflation (and markets currently expect a quarter-point increase later this month), but a weakening labor market typically prompts rate cuts to support employment.

If August’s jobs report underperforms, expectations for a rate hike could ease, potentially relieving some of the upward pressure on mortgage rates — though likely only modestly.

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Refinancing may be worth considering if current rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points below your existing rate, provided you plan to remain in the home long enough to recoup closing costs.

At today’s rate levels, refinancing could be worthwhile if your current rate is approximately 7.23% or higher.

Clarify your objectives: Are you seeking a lower monthly payment, a shorter loan term, or access to home equity through cash? You may be willing to accept a higher rate for a cash-out refinance if the total cost remains lower than alternatives like a HELOC or home equity loan layered onto your existing mortgage.
For a clearer picture of potential savings, NerdWallet’s refinance calculator can estimate your break-even point and monthly payment differences.

Should I start shopping for a home?

No single “right” time exists to begin shopping. What matters most is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage at today’s rates.

If the answer is yes, don’t fixate on whether rates might fall further — refinancing remains an option later. Instead, focus on obtaining preapproval, comparing lender offers, and determining a comfortable monthly payment.
NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help estimate your monthly payment. If purchasing isn’t feasible right now, there are still productive steps to take: reducing existing debt and growing your down payment savings. These actions not only free up future cash flow but can also help secure a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.

Should I lock my rate?

If you have a quote you’re comfortable with, locking in your rate is worth considering — particularly if your lender offers a float-down option, which allows you to benefit if rates drop during the lock period.

Rate locks shield you from increases while your loan is processing, and given the market’s constant fluctuations, that certainty can be valuable.

Nerdy Reminder: Rates can shift daily — or even hourly. If you’re satisfied with your offer, locking in is a reasonable choice.

Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I received?

The rate advertised online is typically a sample rate — generally for borrowers with excellent credit, substantial down payments, and those purchasing mortgage points. Most buyers won’t qualify for that exact figure.

Beyond market conditions outside your control, your personalized quote is shaped by factors such as:

Even borrowers with comparable credit scores can receive different rates depending on their overall financial profile.

If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?

Possibly — but personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. Lenders adjust pricing multiple times daily in response to market movements.

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About the author

Kate Wood is a lending expert and certified financial health counselor (CHFC) who joined NerdWallet in 2019. With a background in sociology, Kate is passionate about addressing inequality in homeownership and higher education, and enjoys demystifying government programs. Before NerdWallet, she covered home remodeling, decor, and maintenance for This Old House.

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