Mortgage rates are modestly higher today.
The average rate on a 30‑year fixed‑mortgage climbed to 6.46% APR, according to Zillow data provided to NerdWallet. This marks a two‑basis‑point increase from Friday and a seven‑basis‑point rise from a week ago. (See the chart below for details.) A basis point equals one‑hundredth of a percentage point.
Since July 2, rates have stayed above June’s monthly average of 6.34%. With just over two weeks until the Federal Reserve’s July 28‑29 meeting, analysts are sharply divided on whether policymakers will hike, hold, or cut the overnight borrowing rate. If pressure builds for a hike, lenders are likely to raise mortgage rates in the coming days and weeks.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
Kate on Rates: July 9, 2026
What influences mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates are constantly changing, responding to new inflation reports, employment data, Federal Reserve meetings, and global events. Even minor shifts in the bond market can affect pricing.
This week, NerdWallet is tracking the June Consumer Price Index, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release on Tuesday. Although CPI is not the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, it remains a key benchmark. “We’re unlikely to see the same degree of inflation acceleration for June as in the prior month, but price growth will stay high and may inch higher,” notes NerdWallet Senior Economist Elizabeth Renter.
Inflation remains a central concern for the Federal Reserve, and recent renewed tensions in Iran could push it higher. Prices have exceeded the Fed’s 2% target for more than five years, and the Iran conflict has intensified the trend. The Fed’s primary tool for curbing inflation is raising interest rates.
Four additional Fed meetings are scheduled before year‑end, and market expectations suggest the likelihood of rate hikes increases with each session.
The Federal Reserve does not set mortgage rates directly, but changes to the federal funds rate— the short‑term rate controlled by policymakers— ripple throughout the economy. Lenders typically price in expected fund‑rate moves well before any official announcement, so an anticipated hike puts upward pressure on mortgage rates.
Refinancing may be worthwhile if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points below your current rate (and you plan to stay in the home long enough to recoup closing costs).
Given current rates, you might consider a refinance if your existing rate is around 6.96% or higher.
Think about your objectives: Are you seeking a lower monthly payment, a shorter loan term, or cash from home equity? For instance, you may accept a higher rate for a cash‑out refinance if overall costs remain lower than keeping your original loan and adding a HELOC or home‑equity loan.If you’re pursuing a lower rate, NerdWallet’s refinance calculator can estimate potential savings and the break‑even point for closing costs.
Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to shop—what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage at today’s rates.
If the answer is yes, avoid fixating on the possibility of lower rates later; you can refinance later. Focus on obtaining pre‑approval, comparing lender offers, and determining a monthly payment that fits your budget.NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate a likely payment. If a new home isn’t feasible now, use this period to reduce existing debts and grow your down‑payment savings. This will improve cash flow for future mortgage payments and can lead to better rates when you’re ready to buy.
Should I lock my rate?
If you have an acceptable quote, consider locking your rate, especially if your lender offers a float‑down option that lets you benefit from a market dip during the lock period.
Rate locks shield you from rising rates while your loan is processed, and in a market that fluctuates frequently, that protection can be valuable.
Nerdy Reminder: Rates can shift daily, even hourly. If you’re comfortable with the offer, it’s reasonable to commit.
Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
The advertised rate is a sample rate, typically for a borrower with excellent credit, a large down payment, and who purchases mortgage points. Your personalized quote may differ.
Beyond market factors outside your control, your customized rate depends on your:
Even two borrowers with similar credit scores can receive different rates based on their overall financial profile.
If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Possibly—but even personalized quotes can change until you lock. Lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market movements.
