If you’re hoping to find lower mortgage interest rates today, unfortunately this isn’t the day.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 7.16% APR, based on rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. That’s 12 basis points higher than yesterday and 14 basis points higher than a week ago. (See the chart below for more details.) A basis point equals one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Mortgage rates have largely hovered around 7% in recent weeks. For more on the forces behind this trend and where rates might head next, read on below the chart.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
Kate on Rates: September 17, 2026
What influences mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates are constantly changing, because a significant portion of how they are determined depends on reactions to new inflation reports, employment data, Federal Reserve decisions, global news — the list goes on. Even subtle shifts in the bond market, for instance, can influence mortgage pricing.
There isn’t much in the way of economic data releases or scheduled events this week that could move mortgage rates. For now, the aftermath of last week’s Federal Reserve meeting remains the primary focus.
The Federal Reserve raised the target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, but that wasn’t the most significant development from the September meeting. By the time the meeting convened, market odds had climbed above 92% in favor of a hike. Mortgage rates had already surged sharply in response to August inflation data, which also played a decisive role in convincing markets that the Fed would need to act.
The most noteworthy aspect of the September meeting wasn’t the rate increase that nearly everyone anticipated — it was the possibility of further hikes to come. The Fed released an updated Summary of Economic Projections, in which committee members shared their anonymized forecasts for key economic metrics. (Except for Chair Kevin Warsh, who declined to participate.)
Among the most closely watched elements is the “dot plot,” in which each dot represents an estimate of the appropriate level for the federal funds rate — the overnight borrowing rate the Fed adjusts — at the close of each year. The majority of participants believe that by the end of 2026, the target for the funds rate should be 25 basis points higher than its current level, indicating one additional modest hike.
However, a notable group believes the rate should rise by 50 basis points, which could be distributed across the October and December meetings or delivered as a single larger hike, likely in December. (Although the Federal Reserve operates independently, there is considerable speculation that a rate hike just before midterm elections could be viewed as a political maneuver.)
Interpreting Warsh’s comments at the post-announcement press conference has also led many to believe this won’t be a one-time rate increase. One phrase drew particular attention: “dose of accommodation.”
This phrase appeared relatively early in his prepared remarks. “I would be hard-pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive,” Warsh stated. “This view was widely shared by the committee. So, we removed a dose of accommodation.” He referenced the phrase “dose of accommodation” two more times while addressing reporters’ questions.
Between the implication that a “dose” suggests more than one instance, Warsh’s otherwise optimistic assessment of the economy’s strength, and the dot plot, markets are bracing for one or more additional rate hikes before year’s end.
Paradoxically, the Fed raising the funds rate is actually providing some relief to mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are tied to the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which had been climbing to concerning levels as bond investors worried the Fed wasn’t addressing inflation with sufficient urgency. The Fed’s decision to act has tempered yields somewhat. It isn’t lowering mortgage rates, but it is easing their upward momentum.
On the other hand, the Fed combats inflation by raising the funds rate, and changes to that rate ripple throughout the entire economy. With at least one more hike in the pipeline, we may be entering a “higher for longer” rate environment.
So while the Fed’s actions and the market’s response have eased some of the upward pressure on mortgage rates, don’t expect rates to decline. The next potential market catalyst, at least for now, is August’s Personal Consumption Price Index, scheduled for release next Wednesday. The PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and if it exceeds expectations, rates could climb even further.
Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to begin house hunting — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage at today’s rates.
If the answer is yes, try not to worry about potentially missing out on lower rates later; you can always refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and determining a monthly payment that fits your budget.NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If purchasing a home isn’t feasible right now, there are still steps you can take to strengthen your buyer profile. Use this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. This will not only free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment but can also help you secure a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.
Should I lock my rate?
If you already have a quote you’re satisfied with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate — especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down allows you to take advantage of a better rate if the market improves during your lock period.
Rate locks shield you from increases while your loan is being processed, and given how frequently the market fluctuates, that peace of mind can be well worth it.
Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — typically for a borrower with excellent credit, making a substantial down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t reflect every buyer’s situation.
In addition to market factors beyond your control, your personalized quote depends on your:
Even two people with similar credit scores could receive different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. Lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market movements.
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate — and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to recoup closing costs.
With rates where they are now, you might consider a refinance if your current rate is around 7.66% or higher.
Also think about your goals: Are you looking to reduce your monthly payment, shorten your loan term, or tap into home equity? For example, you might be more comfortable accepting a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than a rate-and-term refinance, as long as the overall costs are lower than keeping your original mortgage and adding a HELOC or home equity loan.If you’re searching for a lower rate, NerdWallet’s refinance calculator can help you estimate potential savings and understand how long it would take to break even on refinancing costs.
