Most Americans Connect Extreme Weather to Climate Crisis, Poll Finds

Amid a summer marked by dangerous heat waves, droughts, and floods, a new poll reveals that a majority of Americans believe extreme weather events have become more frequent in recent years and are linked to the climate crisis, even as former President Donald Trump has dismissed global warming as a “con job” and a “hoax.

This trend suggests that efforts to downplay climate concerns have not fully succeeded in swaying public opinion, according to Grace Adcox, senior climate strategist at Data for Progress.

“We began by examining whether extreme weather events are increasing, because we assumed that if we could build consensus on that point, it might open the door to bipartisan discussions about climate action,” Adcox explained.

The Data for Progress survey found that approximately 61% of likely American voters believe extreme weather has become more common over the past five years. This includes 72% of Democrats, 63% of independents, and 46% of Republicans.

Sheldon Whitehouse, a Rhode Island senator who has criticized Democrats for downplaying climate change—the so-called “climate-hushing”—said the new data supports the idea that the public is more aware of climate risks than politicians acknowledge.

“The public is significantly ahead of politicians on understanding the severe consequences of climate change,” Whitehouse noted. “Those who downplay the urgency should take heed.”

When asked whether specific types of extreme weather are worsening due to climate change, majorities connected climate change to more severe wildfires (64%), droughts (63%), flooding and flash floods (62%), hurricanes (59%), and severe thunderstorms and hailstorms (59%). However, heat waves received the highest attribution, with 67% of respondents saying climate change is making them worse—including 48% of Republicans, the strongest showing across all weather categories.

Adcox suggested that widespread experience with extreme heat may explain this high level of agreement. “High temperatures kill more people in the U.S. each year than hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods combined,” she pointed out.

“There are regional differences in how people experience extreme weather,” Adcox continued. “Heat tends to affect a broader segment of the population across the U.S. compared to other types of extreme weather.”

This focus on heat could serve as a strategic entry point for climate conversations, Adcox said. “You can say, ‘Hey, this heat event is extraordinary—let’s talk about why it’s happening,’” she offered.

Anthony Leiserowitz, director of the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, said the findings align with previous research showing that Americans increasingly link extreme weather to climate change and support protective measures for vulnerable workers.

Yet Jennifer Marlon, a senior research scientist at Yale, cautioned that many Americans still don’t grasp the root cause of climate change.

“A common misconception is that the warming is due to natural cycles—not true,” Marlon said. A spring survey from Yale found that 27% of people believe the changes are primarily natural.

The survey results may help shape how climate messages are framed to skeptical audiences, particularly around heat-related issues, Adcox said.

Outdoor workers—such as construction, agricultural, and roofing laborers—are especially vulnerable during extreme heat events. In fact, heat is a leading cause of workplace injuries and fatalities. Indoor workers in poorly ventilated spaces, including warehouses, commercial kitchens, and manufacturing plants, also face significant heat risks due to inadequate cooling systems.

Despite this, nearly 88% of polled likely voters support state-level policies requiring employers to provide heat protections, including access to water, shade, rest breaks, and air conditioning. Only 7% oppose such measures, consistent with prior polling by Data for Progress.

“These results send a clear message: safeguarding workers from dangerous heat is not a partisan issue,” said Jessica E. Martinez, executive director of the National Council for Occupational Safety and Health. “When 88% of likely voters back basic, life-saving protections for workers, the public expects action.”

Public support also extends to the possibility of a federal heat standard—a goal long advocated by labor groups but stalled during the Trump administration.

In April, the Biden administration initiated a nationwide enforcement initiative under the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) to protect workers from heat illness, though a revised version of the proposal significantly weakened the original plan.

“By highlighting strong bipartisan support for extreme heat protections, we’re illustrating what climate action can look like when centered on working people,” Adcox said.

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