Netanyahu Battles Political Survival as Opposition Gains Ground in Israel

In recent days, a striking contrast has emerged from the bitter election campaign defined by personal attacks. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has shifted his rhetoric toward national unity, urging collaboration with the opposition bloc that narrowly displaced his coalition in October’s vote.

On Saturday, the same day President Isaac Herzog tasked former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot with forming a viable government, Netanyahu posted a video on social media warning of civil war if a government were formed with the support of Arab parties, whom he accused of seeking to “eliminate the State of Israel.”

Two days later, Netanyahu doubled down on the theme of existential threat, calling on opposition leaders to recognize the “needs of the hour” and join a unified government under his leadership — one that would include ultra-Orthodox parties, at least one of which is reportedly in talks with Eisenkot, as well as far-right allies Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir.

“It’s all a game at the moment. It’s leverage, it’s one-upmanship, it’s psyops, it’s spin, it’s counter-spin,” said Daniel Levy, a former Israeli government adviser, describing the invariably protracted and complex negotiations that precede government formation.

With the new Knesset set to be sworn in on Tuesday, attention has turned to the role of ultra-Orthodox (haredi) parties. These factions have traditionally backed Netanyahu in exchange for legislation shielding yeshiva students from military conscription, defying a Supreme Court ruling from June 2024.

Strategy

Despite the political cover Netanyahu has historically provided, reports suggest United Torah Judaism (UTJ) — which declined to endorse Netanyahu for the mandate to form a government — may now pivot toward Eisenkot. The move would reportedly overcome objections from opposition leader Avigdor Lieberman, who appears willing to accept an alliance with an Arab party rather than endure continued Netanyahu rule or another election cycle.

“It’s political strategy, that’s all,” said Mitchell Barak, a former Netanyahu aide and Israeli pollster, speaking from Jerusalem. “But he’s negotiating from a weakened position. With UTJ, Eisenkot’s got 67 seats,” he noted, referring to the majority threshold in the 120-seat Knesset. “So, of course, Netanyahu’s going to do all he can to reinforce his bloc.” These negotiations are widely seen as critical to Netanyahu’s political future.

Netanyahu faces challenges that threaten both his legacy and personal freedom — challenges he would lose control over should Eisenkot succeed him. Foremost are the multiple corruption charges for which he is currently on trial, despite his protestations of innocence and a preemptive petition to President Herzog, a former political rival. Equally pressing is the question of his government’s culpability for the intelligence and operational failures preceding the October 7 Hamas-led attack, which triggered the subsequent war in Gaza and broader regional escalation.

New Knesset, New Danger

Many incoming MKs — including bereaved family members, reservists, advocates for the roughly 250 Israelis taken hostage on October 7, and Eisenkot himself, who lost a son and two nephews in the ensuing war — share direct ties to that day. Their presence creates a chamber where emotions over the attack and questions of accountability run close to the surface.

Scrutiny will likely focus intensely on Netanyahu, whose alleged miscalculations before the attack, reports of ignored warnings, and accusations of prolonging the war or sacrificing hostage welfare for political gain have fueled opposition demands. A key objective for the opposition on the first parliamentary session is installing Matan Kahana, a member of Eisenkot’s Yashar (“Straight”) party and a vocal proponent of a state inquiry into the government’s pre-October 7 failures.

“Having so many people connected so directly to October 7 is going to increase the temperature, but it’s become so politicized that a win for one side automatically becomes a loss for the other,” said Israeli political analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg. “The bereaved family on the right can say we need to increase our militarism in honor of my son, and the bereaved family in the center says we need to enlist more people. Netanyahu can try to influence that, but for the first time in a long time, he seems a bit lost.”

However uncertain Netanyahu’s footing, or however grounded his warnings of civil war or regional destruction, his political and potentially personal fate now rests with an opposition that outnumbers his bloc and a volatile Knesset eager to examine past failures.

“There’s no appetite on the other side to go in with Netanyahu for a unity government,” Levy said.

“The only real circumstances under which that happens is if he can create a security emergency,” he added, referencing a weekend of reports that Netanyahu had made daily calls to the Trump administration urging renewed military action against Iran.

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