Netanyahu Poised to Retain Power Despite Election Shortfall

By Samia Nakhoul

DUBAI, October 28 (Reuters) – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was ahead in the vote count on Wednesday, though his prospects for a second term now hinge on forming a coalition with other parties after failing to secure a parliamentary majority.

Turnout was a record high, with almost 86% of ballots counted. Israel’s leading broadcasters projected Netanyahu’s alliance of right‑wing, far‑right and ultra‑Orthodox parties to secure 53 Knesset seats, while the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot was expected to win 48.

Neither bloc reached the 61 seats required for a majority, and parties representing Arab Israelis were projected to win 19 seats.

Former adviser Aviv Bushinsky said, “It may be difficult to acknowledge, but he is the winner,” characterizing the prime minister’s resurgence as a political resurrection.

Bushinsky noted the paradox that, although the election denied Netanyahu a parliamentary majority, it could reinvigorate his political standing.

Even after the fallout from the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks and criticism of security lapses during his tenure, Netanyahu secured the backing of a substantial majority of Israeli Jews and now leads the largest parliamentary bloc.

According to Danny Citrinowicz, a regional analyst and former military intelligence officer, Netanyahu’s success was primarily about survival rather than victory.

Netanyahu’s bloc lost seats and fell short of the 61 seats needed to govern alone, while Eisenkot’s camp also lacked a viable path to power without Arab party support.

Citrinowicz observed, “He won by not losing. He managed to survive,” adding that Netanyahu’s victory was essentially a survival.

ARAB ISRAELIS MAKE GAINS

Netanyahu will remain as caretaker prime minister while Israel’s president selects a candidate to form a government. Even without a parliamentary majority, he retains incumbency power and a route to coalition.

The election’s biggest disruption stemmed from the Arab electorate’s unprecedented turnout, which could give Arab parties decisive influence over the outcome.

Arab Israelis, who are Palestinian by heritage and constitute 21% of the population, may now hold the balance of power between the rival blocs.

Dennis Ross, a former US Middle East peace negotiator, said, “The Arab community has never before wielded this level of power.”

Netanyahu’s opponents face a challenging path to unseat him. Forming a government will likely require direct or indirect support from Arab parties, which may prove difficult for right‑wing partners such as Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman.

Analysts say the options are a broad unity government under Netanyahu or a fresh election.

Bushinsky considers a unity government the most realistic path, especially if US President Donald Trump urges Netanyahu to bring rivals into the coalition and marginalize far‑right ministers Itamar Ben‑Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.

The United States remains Israel’s most important ally, and Trump could leverage his public support for Netanyahu to press for a broader coalition, Bushinsky said.

If that fails, Israel may remain deadlocked and be forced back to the polls, a scenario several analysts say could further bolster Netanyahu rather than alter the election result.

Citrinowicz argued that the stalemate positions Netanyahu more favorably than Eisenkot for the premiership. Since another election is unappealing to most parties, he believes a Netanyahu‑led unity government — possibly including Eisenkot or Bennett — is the most plausible resolution.

IRAN LOOMS OVER THE FIGHT FOR POWER

Since the October 7 attacks, Israel has waged wars against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and has conducted joint strikes with the United States against Iran.

In a post‑election address to cheering supporters, Netanyahu called for a strong right‑wing national government and framed Israel’s military successes as a historic chance to eliminate the Iranian threat.

He declared that Israel, together with President Trump, has a singular historical opportunity to eradicate Iran’s existential threat, warning that ulterior motives must not divert them from this sacred mission.

Trump, who had urged Israelis to keep Netanyahu in power to “finish the job” in Iran, said the prime minister had performed “very well” and credited his own endorsement for the outcome.

Trump added, “It might be a win or a tie; a tie, in that context, is considered a victory in this big chess match.”

A more consequential question is whether Netanyahu, seeking to stay in office, will again turn to Israel’s security challenges — particularly Iran — to reshape the political equation.

Eisenkot, 66, who lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza war, sought to claim that mandate by framing the election as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership.

In a message to Israel’s security chiefs and public servants, Eisenkot said Netanyahu now leads a transitional government that has lost public confidence, urging them to “stand strong and firm against any attempt to challenge you.”

Netanyahu entered the election burdened by a long‑running corruption trial, resistance to an independent inquiry into the Hamas attack, escalating settler violence in the West Bank, and a contentious dispute over military service exemptions for ultra‑Orthodox Jews.

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