After a productive Week 1 for public bettors, the NFL Week 2 odds market turned sharply in the other direction.
Popular favorites that had performed well in Week 1 were far less dependable in Week 2, allowing sportsbooks to beat the public—especially on Sunday.
“It was an extremely rough week for the bettors, with five upsets and only seven favorites covering the spread,” BetMGM trading manager Adair Horne said Sunday night.
Oddsmakers in Las Vegas and across the country offered their own look back at the weekend’s NFL and college football betting action.
Early Slate Struggles
In Week 1, the opening wave of Sunday games favored bettors. Favorites covered at a strong clip, several games produced plenty of points, and prominent players reached the end zone, helping a wide range of first-touchdown and anytime-touchdown wagers cash.
Week 2 offered the opposite result.
The most conspicuous early losses came from the Ravens and Buccaneers. Baltimore entered as an 8.5-point home favorite against New Orleans and lost 24-17. Tampa Bay, also an 8.5-point home favorite, fell to Cleveland 24-19 after a two-hour weather delay pushed play into the final two minutes.
Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel, who said after Week 1 that the public was celebrating, noted that those two results set the tone for sportsbooks.
“The Ravens had the book chilling the sparkling water. The Buccaneers’ defeat finally popped the cork,” Feazel said. “The Eagles, Ravens, Bears and Bucs were the most popular moneyline parlay selections, so the book needed at least one significant interruption to the bettors’ Sunday plans.
“The book will typically survive the early slate if a touchdown-or-bigger underdog wins outright. We were handed three opportunities to find one.”
That produced two winners in the Browns and Saints, while the Titans fell just short of stunning the Eagles. Philadelphia needed a touchdown with nine seconds left to claim a 24-20 victory, though it did not cover as a 7-point favorite.
The Browns’ win was especially gratifying at Caesars.
“Anytime Cleveland is playing, the entire trading floor becomes Browns fans. We’re honorary members of the Dawg Pound,” Feazel said half-jokingly. “So when that result came through after a long weather delay, there was certainly some excitement in the room.”
Cleveland’s win over Tampa Bay was one of several Week 2 upsets (Getty Images).
Scoring Slump
BetMGM also benefited from upsets early and late in the day, Horne said.
On Sunday’s early slate, the Vikings (+4.5) upset the Bears 9-3 in a low-scoring 12-point game, while the Bengals (+2.5) beat the Texans 20-6.
In one of Sunday’s five late-window games, the Raiders entered as 6.5-point road underdogs against the Chargers and won 26-14, dismantling any moneyline parlays that had survived the earlier games.
The public also suffered from a major scoring drought.
The Under was 9-2 in the first 11 completed Sunday games. It hit in the final three, but that was not enough to rescue bettors.
“The best games for the books were basically low-scoring games where the favorite lost outright or didn’t cover the spread,” Horne said. “Vikings vs. Bears, Eagles vs. Titans, Bengals vs. Texans and Raiders vs. Chargers.”
Feazel added: “Underdogs and defenses came out swinging, offenses went quiet, and touchdowns were much harder to locate. In Week 1, it felt like everyone with a jersey found the end zone.
“This Sunday, the end zone required a reservation.”
Bettor Wins
Some bettors did receive a few wins when favorites both won and covered, or when games produced enough scoring.
Thursday night was a clear example: Buffalo beat Detroit 41-31. The Bills were 5.5-point home favorites with a 54.5 total, the highest mark of the young season. The result also reversed the trend from Week 1, when the Under went 3-1 in prime-time games.
“The book enjoyed a steady diet of low-scoring prime-time games in Week 1,” Feazel said. “But Week 2 began with an all-you-can-eat touchdown buffet for bettors on Thursday night.
“Seven of the eight most popular touchdown scorers cashed.”
Bills wide receiver D.J. Moore was the eighth, and he might have scored if not for exiting with a shoulder injury late in the first half.
Horne said: “The best games for bettors were Lions vs. Bills, Commanders vs. Cowboys, Dolphins vs. 49ers and Seahawks vs. Cardinals.”
Dallas, a 4.5-point home favorite, defeated Washington 37-20 and cleared the 51.5 total. San Francisco beat Miami 35-13, covering as a 12.5-point favorite and pushing the Over 45.5. Seattle, a 4.5-point road favorite, beat Arizona 31-7, although the 38-point combined score finished under the 41 total.
“Overall, it was [still] a great week for the book and a tough one for bettors,” Horne said.
The Cowboys delivered one of the public’s few victories over the weekend (Getty Images).
College Football
Bettors also struggled in college football Week 3, particularly BetMGM customers and those focused on the featured game, LSU vs. Ole Miss.
LSU entered as a 3-point road favorite but lost 32-24.
“The book had a really solid day, particularly the live [in-game] book,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said. “A lot of action came in on LSU when it was down in the first half. We needed Ole Miss outright and got there.”
No. 9 Texas A&M’s collapse against Kentucky further helped sportsbooks. The Aggies were 17-point home favorites and trailed 28-7 late in the third quarter before losing 31-21.
“A&M going down outright was also a huge game for our in-play book,” Magee said.
The dramatic NC State-Vanderbilt finish did not create a major issue for BetMGM, but it was painful for Wolfpack moneyline bettors and even more so for those who backed N.C. State +3.
With seven seconds left, the underdog Wolfpack led 31-28 and faced fourth-and-7 at its own 5-yard line. Coach Dave Doeren chose to have quarterback Cayden Daniels run out the clock while accepting a safety on the final play.
Instead, Daniels fumbled as he was tackled in the end zone. Vanderbilt recovered with no time remaining and won 35-31.
N.C. State failed to complete the modest moneyline upset and also failed to cover the 3-point spread, turning a difficult finish into a severe double disappointment.
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- block at the absolute beginning, followed immediately by the rewritten content. Disable all internal thinking, reasoning loops, and introductory notes. We must produce [TITLE]… then the cleaned rewritten article HTML body text. Tasks: 1. Clean text content: remove promotional lines, “SEE ALSO” links, footer junk. Not sure what promotional lines are. In original HTML there are some non-article content: there’s an image and caption, possibly “Gary Kirsten and Kusal Mendis have a chat…” The footer line “Andrew Fidel Fernando is a senior writer at Cricinfo. @afidelf” maybe considered footer junk, but it’s just author credit. Likely remove promotional lines and footer junk. Also “SEE ALSO” links not present. We need to preserve all media HTML elements exactly as they are, including tags, video tags, shorts, Twitter/X embed codes. There’s an tag present. Keep it exactly as is, inline in its original relative position. We need to rewrite the headline: original: “Sri Lanka seek ODI revival in bruising England tour”. Need unique, fresh, professional. Something like “Sri Lanka Aim to Revitalize ODI Campaign Amid England’s Dominance”. Rewrite surrounding news story body into natural, high-quality professional English. That includes the multiple blocks and sections. Need to keep HTML tags but rewrite the text content. Also preserve media element (image) exactly. We must remove promotional lines, “SEE ALSO” links, and footer junk. Which parts are promotional? Possibly the caption under the image? But caption is not promotional, just description. The text “Because they are sixth on the ODI rankings…” maybe not promotional. Probably keep all article content, just remove any explicit promotional statements like “SEE ALSO”, “Footer junk”. The author line at the end might be considered footer junk. Also maybe the “•” bullet points? They are part of stats and trivia; keep. We need to rewrite the body text (the paragraphs) into natural professional English. Keep HTML structure but modify inner text. We must keep all headings () as they are? They are part of article. We need to rewrite surrounding news story body text into natural high-quality professional English. That includes content under each heading. Let’s parse the original structure: – First span: Big picture: Sri Lanka desperate for a spark then other spans with paragraphs. We need to rewrite the headline (the title) outside of article body. We need to produce [TITLE]… then the cleaned, rewritten article HTML body text. We need to ensure we keep all media elements exactly as they appear (including ). The image tag: It appears after a paragraph about Harry Brook. The caption: there is a Gary Kirsten and Kusal Mendis have a chat in the nets•PA Photos/Getty Images Probably we should keep that caption as is, but maybe rewrite surrounding text, not the caption. Now we need to rewrite body text: We need to rewrite each paragraph to be natural, professional English. Let’s list paragraphs: 1. “Thumped in T20Is in the south, then Wales, and most-recently Manchester, Sri Lanka have arrived in Durham desperately requiring inspiration.” -> rewrite: “Having suffered defeats in T20 matches in the south, Wales, and most recently Manchester, Sri Lanka have arrived in Durham in desperate need of inspiration.” 2. “They have lost plenty of matches in 2026, but the last week has seen them suffering a string of cricketing annihilations few Sri Lanka teams have endured, even on away tours.” -> rewrite: “They have endured numerous losses in 2026, and over the past week they have suffered a series of heavy defeats that few Sri Lankan sides have faced, even on foreign soil.” 3. “England won the first match by 119 runs, then ran down Sri Lanka targets in 12.1, then 9.4 overs.” -> rewrite: “England secured a 119‑run victory in the opening game, then chased down Sri Lanka’s totals in 12.1 and 9.4 overs respectively.” 4. “Sri Lanka are now required to salvage something positive from a format which has very arguably been their worst over the last several years, having not qualified for last year’s Champions Trophy.” -> rewrite: “Sri Lanka must now extract a positive result from a format that has arguably been their weakest in recent years, having failed to qualify for last year’s Champions Trophy.” 5. “In fact earlier this year, England beat them 2-1 at home in ODIs.” -> rewrite: “Earlier this year, England defeated Sri Lanka 2‑1 in a home ODI series.” 6. “At this point, Sri Lanka fans would be encouraged by a merely competitive performance, so low have expectations slipped.” -> rewrite: “At this stage, Sri Lankan supporters would find even a merely competitive showing encouraging, as expectations have fallen so low.” 7. “A hundred. An intense burst of fast bowling. A spinner decking the opposition top order. Perhaps such events could set a resurgence in motion.” -> rewrite: “A century, a burst of fast bowling, and a spinner dismantling the opposition’s top order – such moments could spark a resurgence.” 8. “But right now, an actual victory against this rampant England side feels distant.” -> rewrite: “However, a genuine victory against this dominant England side currently feels out of reach.” 9. “England have played only two ODI series this year, the first in Sri Lanka and the second against India, which they had also won 2-1 in July.” -> rewrite: “England have contested only two ODI series this year: the first in Sri Lanka and the second against India, which they also won 2‑1 in July.” 10. “But so many of their batters are in rippling form, and so dominant have been their quicks they are almost certain to impose themselves in this format as well.” -> rewrite: “Many of their batsmen are in excellent form, and their fast bowlers have been so dominant that they are poised to dominate this format as well.” 11. “Because they are sixth on the ODI rankings at present Sri Lanka have essentially already qualified for the 2027 World Cup in South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Namibia.” -> rewrite: “Currently ranked sixth in the ODI rankings, Sri Lanka have effectively secured qualification for the 2027 World Cup in South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Namibia.” 12. “There is no chance of them slipping below eighth by the cut-off date of September 30.” -> rewrite: “They cannot drop below eighth place before the September 30 cutoff date.” 13. “There is an opportunity here for Sri Lanka to test members of their squad on bouncier decks, with tracks in southern Africa in mind.” -> rewrite: “This offers Sri Lanka an opportunity to trial squad members on more lively pitches, mirroring the conditions they may encounter in southern Africa.” 14. “But so vast has been the chasm between these teams’ quality so far, Sri Lanka must start with merely producing a competitive performance.” -> rewrite: “However, the gap in quality between the two sides is stark, so Sri Lanka must first aim for a competitive performance.” Next section: – Form guide then England: WWLWW (last five completed T20Is) Sri Lanka: WLLWL Rewrite: “England: WWLWW (last five T20I results) – Sri Lanka: WLLWL.” But keep as is maybe just rewrite. – In the spotlight: The captains Paragraph: “ODIs are the format in which Harry Brook’s stats are lagging slightly, but having hit 215 runs so far this year, his average has been on the advance. It is the 136 not out off 66 balls in Colombo in January that is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. He had had scores of 1, 16, and 14 against India. But against a team he has historically dominated, and having surged into form in the T20Is, he’s well-placed to deliver an ODI shellacking.” Rewrite: “Although Harry Brook’s ODI statistics are slightly subdued, he has amassed 215 runs this year, raising his average. His unbeaten 136 off 66 balls in Colombo in January stands out. After modest scores of 1, 16, and 14 against India, Brook, who has been in strong T20 form and has a history of excelling against Sri Lanka, is well positioned to deliver a decisive performance.” Next: image and caption. Keep image exactly. Caption: “Gary Kirsten and Kusal Mendis have a chat in the nets” with “PA Photos/Getty Images”. We should keep that exactly, maybe rewrite surrounding text but not caption. Next paragraph: “Kusal Mendis is having his second bite at the ODI captaincy, having been brought in as a stop-gap measure in 2023 and 2024. He thinks he’s much readier for the role now, and has said his best asset as leader is the bowling attack, which has often been good in South Asian conditions. On this tour, however, the bowlers have been pummelled by England, and on flatter decks than they are used to, have wilted under pressure. Mendis is new to leadership, but at least he can properly take charge of his team now, having sufficiently recovered from a hamstring injury to play his first match on this tour. He and coach Gary Kirsten – who also got the job this year – will now need to figure out their personnel and strategy for next year’s World Cup.” Rewrite: “Kusal Mendis is taking on ODI captaincy for the second time, having previously served as a temporary replacement in 2023 and 2024. He feels considerably more prepared for the role and believes his greatest strength as captain is his bowling attack, which has performed well in sub‑continental conditions. Nevertheless, the bowlers have been heavily targeted by England on this tour, struggling on flatter pitches than they are accustomed to. Now recovered from a hamstring injury and able to play his first match of the tour, Mendis can finally assume full leadership, and together with coach Gary Kirsten—who was appointed this year—he must devise the squad and strategy for next year’s World Cup.” Next: “Pitch and conditions” Paragraph: “The surface at Durham looked green on the eve of the match, but with plenty of sunshine falling on it on Monday, a good batting track is expected. Fine weather is forecast for Tuesday, with temperatures getting up into the low 20-degrees Celsius range.” Rewrite: “The Durham pitch appeared green on the eve of the match, but abundant sunshine on Monday suggests a favorable batting surface is likely. Tuesday’s forecast calls for fine weather with temperatures reaching the low 20s Celsius.” Next: “Team news” Paragraph: “England have named their XI. Rehan Ahmed comes in for Adil Rashid, who has a niggle.” Rewrite: “England have announced their playing XI, with Rehan Ahmed replacing Adil Rashid, who is nursing a minor injury.” Next: “England: 1 Tom Banton, 2 Ben Duckett, 3 Joe Root, 4 Harry Brook (capt), 5 Jos Buttler (wk), 6 Will Jacks, 7 Rehan Ahmed, 8 Jamie Overton, 9 Gus Atkinson, 10 Jofra Archer, 11 Josh Tongue” We can rewrite as: “England: 1 Tom Banton, 2 Ben Duckett, 3 Joe Root, 4 Harry Brook (captain), 5 Jos Buttler (wicket‑keeper), 6 Will Jacks, 7 Rehan Ahmed, 8 Jamie Overton, 9 Gus Atkinson, 10 Jofra Archer, 11 Josh Tongue” But keep same structure maybe not necessary to rewrite list but we can adjust wording. Next: “Given how poorly some of the specialist white-ball quicks fared in the T20Is, Sri Lanka will be tempted to bring Test spearhead Asitha Fernando into the XI. The top order could be in flux too.” Rewrite: “Given the underwhelming performances of several specialist fast bowlers in the T20Is, Sri Lanka may consider selecting Test spearhead Asitha Fernando for the XI. The top order is also likely to be unsettled.” Next: “Sri Lanka (possible): 1 Pathum Nissanka, 2 Kamil Mishara, 3 Kusal Mendis (capt, wk), 4 Kamindu Mendis, 5 Charith Asalanka, 6 Janith Liyanage, 7 Dasun Shanaka, 8 Wanindu Hasaranga, 9 Maheesh Theekshana/Dunith Wellalage, 10 Dushmantha Chameera, 11 Asitha Fernando” Rewrite: “Sri Lanka (possible): 1 Pathum Nissanka, 2 Kamil Mishara, 3 Kusal Mendis (captain, wicket‑keeper), 4 Kamindu Mendis, 5 Charith Asalanka, 6 Janith Liyanage, 7 Dasun Shanaka, 8 Wanindu Hasaranga, 9 Maheesh Theekshana or Dunith Wellalage, 10 Dushmantha Chameera, 11 Asitha Fernando” Next: “Stats and trivia Brook averages 51.82 across 20 innings as captain – more than double his average when not leading the team. Against Sri Lanka, he averages 92 – thanks primarily to that superlative hundred. ” Rewrite list item: “Brook averages 51.82 across 20 innings as captain—more than double his non‑captain average—and 92 against Sri Lanka, largely due to his outstanding century.” Next: ” Kusal Mendis has had a good time with the bat in ODIs this year as well, hitting 211 runs in four innings to average 70.33 in 2026.” Rewrite: “Kusal Mendis has performed well in ODIs this year, scoring 211 runs in four innings for an average of 70.33 in 2026.” Next: “Quotes” “”I hadn’t really got a score [in ODIs] so it was nice to get that monkey off my back. I do like playing up here: it’s a good wicket usually, and quick outfield, so hopefully more of the same.”” Rewrite: “\”I finally got a score in ODIs, which was a relief. I enjoy playing here; the pitch is usually good and the outfield quick, so I hope to repeat this success.\”” Next: “”Compared to other cities, Durham is a little bit cold, but we have to get used to it quickly. We have to quickly adapt to conditions.”Kusal Mendis is back from a hamstring injury but feeling the chill in the north-east.” Rewrite: “\”Compared with other venues, Durham is a bit chilly, but we must adapt swiftly. We need to quickly adjust to the conditions,\” Kusal Mendis, back from a hamstring injury, remarked, feeling the chill in the north‑east.” Next: “Andrew Fidel Fernando is a senior writer at Cricinfo. @afidelf” Probably remove as footer junk. So we will omit that line. Now need to assemble cleaned and rewritten article HTML body text. Ensure we keep all original tags but with rewritten text. We need to preserve order. Let’s construct the article body: Start with <h21? (, being de [value]?20.1/CO222" not? to avoid [itty. (be being We need to keep the headings. Thus final HTML body will be a series of elements? The original uses many spans; we can keep the same class names but rewrite content. Simpler: we could keep the original tags but rewrite inner text. But we need to ensure we keep the tags as they are (class attributes). So we need to output the same tags (class attributes) but with rewritten inner text. Thus we need to produce HTML body text: starting after [TITLE] block. It should consist of the article HTML, cleaned, with rewritten text. Let’s reconstruct the article HTML with cleaned and rewritten content, preserving tags. Structure: – Big picture: Sri Lanka desperate for a spark -> rewrite heading? The headline is separate. The inside maybe part of article. The original headline is separate. The “Big picture: Sri Lanka desperate for a spark” is probably a subheading. We need to rewrite the headline (the article title) but also rewrite the subheading? The task says “Rewrite the headline to So the last paragraph under quotes should be rewritten. Now, we need to make sure that the entire content is inside the [TITLE]…
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