With the new NFL season nearly here, the Week 1 slate offers plenty of uncertainty. With 22 weeks remaining and a full schedule ahead, the following are my against-the-spread predictions.
When I made my first Week 1 pick in 1994, Aaron Glenn was a rookie first-round pick from Texas A&M making his Jets debut in Orchard Park, and Pete Carroll was his coach. More than three decades later, the three of us would still be competing for the most gray hair.
This will be my final season making these predictions. After offering one last Super Bowl pick, I plan to spend my time on the Florida Suncoast, whether on the golf course, at a tiki bar or at the poker table.
With the season ahead, here is the Week 1 outlook.
Dallas Cowboys (-3) over New York Giants
I believe John Harbaugh can raise the Giants’ floor in his first season in East Rutherford. For a franchise that has struggled throughout the McAdoo-Shurmur-Judge-Daboll era, that could be a meaningful change.
Expectations of nine or 10 wins and a possible playoff berth may be ahead of where the Giants currently stand. Entering the final two games of last season, New York still held the No. 1 overall pick, and fans were reportedly discussing how to extract three first-round selections and more from the Jets for Fernando Mendoza.
The Giants did have several close games against strong opponents, including Detroit and Chicago, and they squandered a major lead in Denver. A better record was within reach, so Harbaugh’s toughness and Super Bowl experience could help them improve immediately.
Harbaugh’s history with Baltimore also includes some memorable blown leads, however, and Ravens fans appear comfortable with Jesse Minter taking over instead.
For New York, the coaching change may help 52 players, but its effect on Jaxson Dart is less clear. Dart and Daboll had developed a productive relationship, and it remains to be seen how he performs with Matt Nagy and Greg Roman.
Dallas arrives with one of the league’s most dangerous wide receiving pairs in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, giving it a clear advantage against a questionable Giants secondary. If the Cowboys cannot pressure Dak Prescott, however, this could prove to be a difficult opener for Harbaugh’s first season in New York.
New York Jets (+1.5) over Tennessee Titans
The Jets will get an early look at former New York coaches Robert Saleh and Daboll, who are now with Tennessee. Aaron Glenn will be the next local coach dismissed if New York starts poorly, and a loss to another struggling team would make that outcome more likely. The Packers, Lions and Bears follow on the schedule.
I’m curious to see what Geno Smith can accomplish with Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, AD Mitchell and Kenyon Sadiq behind a strong offensive line. David Bailey and Will McDonald also should test Cam Ward and create opportunities for some badly needed interceptions.
Chicago Bears (-3.5) over Carolina Panthers
The Bears’ strong finish last season was driven by a plus-22 turnover margin and 33 takeaways. That kind of turnover edge rarely carries over, but rookie safety Dillon Thieneman should be a disruptive presence, and Ben Johnson’s offense should improve in its second season.
Detroit Lions (-7) over New Orleans Saints
The Lions are my NFC Super Bowl pick. Although Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch will be unavailable, I expect Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown to start quickly. New Orleans added Jordyn Tyson to pair with Chris Olave, but Tyson is expected to begin the season on injured reserve.
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) over Indianapolis Colts
If Daniel Jones can return to his previous level so quickly after tearing his Achilles on Dec. 7, it would be one of the most impressive medical recoveries in recent NFL memory. The spread appears unusually low, perhaps because of Indianapolis’ 8-2 start in 2025, but Lamar Jackson, Kyle Hamilton and a powerful Baltimore defense should provide an immediate test.
Atlanta Falcons (+4.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers
I was ready to take the Falcons with Tua Tagovailoa, but Cooper Rush does not look like a major downgrade now that Tagovailoa is out. Mike McCarthy coached Aaron Rodgers two decades ago, highlighting how long the Steelers’ quarterback situation has been in flux. The extra half-point could matter.
Buffalo Bills (-1.5) over Houston Texans
The Bills are my Super Bowl pick, and I expect a noticeable difference with Joe Brady calling the offense instead of Sean McDermott, whose defensive background may have limited Josh Allen at times. Houston will be a difficult opponent, especially if C.J. Stroud improves on his playoff performance. Championship teams have to win games like this.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) over Cincinnati Bengals
Fading Cincinnati always carries the risk of a lopsided loss, but Tampa Bay offers a favorable number. Bucky Irving and Tristan Wirfs are healthy, Baker Mayfield has secured his role, and rookie wide receiver Ted Hurst III could make an immediate impact beside Emeka Egbuka.
Cleveland Browns (+8.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars do not inspire enough confidence with this amount of favoritism. Cleveland acquired Jared Verse from Houston in the Myles Garrett trade and added wide receivers KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston. New coach Todd Monken also gives the Browns another reason to consider the points.
Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) over Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels and Sonny Styles make this number look tight, but Week 1 may be the right time to rely on a fully healthy Philadelphia offensive line. It should also be interesting to see Makai Lemon and DeVonta Smith play alongside Saquon Barkley.
Las Vegas Raiders (-3) over Miami Dolphins
Is Miami beginning a preseason tank with a new coach and a free-agent quarterback? That seems unlikely, which makes laying these points uncomfortable. Kirk Cousins and center Tyler Linderbaum should provide stability for the Raiders’ offense, while rookie running back Mike Washington Jr. is worth monitoring.
Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5) over Arizona Cardinals
Laying 9.5 points in Week 1 is never comfortable, but Arizona offers few alternatives. The Cardinals tried to upgrade the offense in the draft, yet guard Chase Bisontis is on injured reserve and running back Jerimiyah Love could be limited by an ankle issue if he plays.
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) over Green Bay Packers
I am not placing much weight on Green Bay being winless in games Micah Parsons missed last season; those losses came against quality opponents. Still, the combination of that record and Josh Jacobs’ suspension creates a difficult opening spot if Kyler Murray is effective.
MONDAY
Denver Broncos (+2.5) over Kansas City Chiefs:
Bo Nix and Patrick Mahomes are recovering from injuries, while each team has added dynamic help—Jaylen Waddle in Denver and Kenneth Walker in Kansas City. Denver’s defense remains formidable. Taking the points is the play, and the opening-night matchup should be entertaining.
Best bets: Ravens, Jets and Bears.
Lock of the week: Ravens (Locks 9-13 in 2025).
Wednesday: Patriots (P).
Thursday: 49ers (W).
