Dry Weather in Ivory Coast Pushes Cocoa Prices Higher
December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) closed up +29 (+0.52%) on Friday, and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ26) closed up +22 (+0.53%).
Cocoa prices settled higher for the fifth consecutive session on Friday, amid concerns of dry conditions in the Ivory Coast. Forecasts of below-normal rains in the Ivory Coast over the next week could stress crops and reduce cocoa output in the 2026/27 crop season.
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Cocoa prices have been under pressure over the past three weeks and dropped to 1.75-month lows on Tuesday amid signs of higher cocoa output in the Ivory Coast. The Ivory Coast cocoa regulator, Le Conseil du Café Cacao, reported on September 2 that Ivory Coast harvested 2.06 MMT of cocoa from June 2025 to June 2026, up +30% from 1.58 MMT a year earlier.
Bloomberg reported Friday that cumulative data from the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, showed that farmers shipped 2.16 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current international cocoa marketing year (October 1, 2025, through September 20, 2026), up +18.7% from the year-earlier period. Bloomberg continues to report Ivory Coast shipments based on the international cocoa marketing year. However, the Ivory Coast moved its marketing year up this year to start September 1, versus the international start date of October 1. According to Reuters, based on the Ivory Coast marketing year that began September 1, 2026, Ivory Coast deliveries in the Sep 1-13 period were 26,000 metric tons, down -45.8% from the same period of the previous season (October 1-12).
Rising cocoa inventories are also negative for prices after ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 2.25-year high of 3,437,710 bags on Wednesday.
On September 2, Barry Callebaut AG, the world’s biggest cocoa processor, said the global cocoa market is well supplied, leaving the market better prepared to manage risks than it did during the 2023/24 El Niño weather event that drove cocoa prices to record highs.
Cocoa prices recently strengthened, with NY cocoa posting an 11.75-month high on August 31 and London cocoa posting an 11.75-month high on September 1. Concerns about the quality of this year’s West African cocoa crops are underpinning cocoa prices. Cloudy weather and limited sunshine in the Ivory Coast and Ghana are allowing black pod disease to spread, lowering cocoa bean quality.
Cocoa prices also have underlying support from early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop, which show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signaling a weak outlook for the main cocoa harvest, which began this month. Early crop assessments show poor pod development and an average estimate of 1.8 MMT for the season starting in September, down -18% from about 2.2 MMT in 2025/26.
Concern about a smaller cocoa crop from Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, is bullish for prices. On August 20, Ghana’s Cocoa Board said that after a field survey of pod counts, it estimates the 2026/27 Ghana cocoa crop will be 650,000 MT, down -13% from 750,000 MT in the 2025/26 crop year.
Also on the positive side, StoneX on July 29 cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 MT from a forecast of 149,000 MT in April, citing risks to the West African cocoa crop from an expected El Niño. In addition, Transgraph Consulting on July 23 forecast that the global cocoa surplus in 2026-2027 will shrink to 80,000 metric tons from 415,000 MT in 2025-2026, mainly due to an expected decline in production to 4.87 MMT in 2026-2027 from 5.11 MMT in 2025-2026.
In a bullish factor, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, on July 30 projected Ghana’s 2026/27 cocoa production could fall to 450,000 MT to 550,000 MT from 750,000 MT projected for 2025/26 due to the combined effects of swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms, and the likelihood of adverse weather from the El Niño weather pattern. However, production is strong for the current marketing year. Ghana’s cocoa board reported on August 26 that 750,000 MT of cocoa has been harvested for the 2025/26 season, which ends at the end of this month, up +25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25.
Cocoa prices have underlying medium-term support from future weather concerns. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. An El Niño typically brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and lowering yields.
Cocoa demand was mixed in Q2. On July 16, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell -4.6% to 316,366 MT, a larger decline than the -1.5% y/y expected and the lowest level for Q2 in 6 years. However, the National Confectioners Association reported that Q2 North American cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose by +7.7% y/y to 109,659 MT, well above expectations of a -1% y/y decline, easing cocoa demand fears. Also, Asian cocoa demand improved after the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q2 Asian cocoa grindings rose by +25% y/y to 224,646 MT, well above expectations of +9% y/y.
On the date of publication,
Rich Asplund
did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.
For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy
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Dry conditions… (the main article)
Don’t Miss a Day… (promo – REMOVE)
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Cocoa prices have been under pressure… (detailed)
Rising cocoa inventories… (inventory info)
On September 2, Barry Callebaut… (company comment)
Cocoa prices recently strengthened… (recent strengths)
Concerning crop quality… (quality issues)
Crop surveys and forward outlook… (harvest forecasts)
Ghana crop concern… (Ghana projection)
Surplus cut statements… (consumer sentiment)
Production projection from COCOBOD… (production outlook)
Medium-term weather support… (climate context)
Demand breakdown Q2… (demand details)
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December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) closed up +29 (+0.52%) on Friday, and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ26) closed up +22 (+0.53%).
Cocoa prices settled higher for the fifth consecutive session on Friday, amid concerns of dry conditions in the Ivory Coast. Forecasts of below-normal rains in the Ivory Coast over the next week could stress crops and reduce cocoa output in the 2026/27 crop season.
Don’t Miss a Day:
From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity analysis.Cocoa prices have been under pressure over the past three weeks and dropped to 1.75-month lows on Tuesday amid signs of higher cocoa output in the Ivory Coast. The Ivory Coast cocoa regulator, Le Conseil du Café Cacao, reported on September 2 that Ivory Coast harvested 2.06 MMT of cocoa from June 2025 to June 2026, up +30% from 1.58 MMT a year earlier.
Bloomberg reported Friday that cumulative data from the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, showed that farmers shipped 2.16 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current international cocoa marketing year (October 1, 2025, through September 20, 2026), up +18.7% from the year-earlier period. Bloomberg continues to report Ivory Coast shipments based on the international cocoa marketing year. However, the Ivory Coast moved its marketing year up this year to start September 1, versus the international start date of October 1. According to Reuters, based on the Ivory Coast marketing year that began September 1, 2026, Ivory Coast deliveries in the Sep 1-13 period were 26,000 metric tons, down -45.8% from the same period of the previous season (October 1-12).
Rising cocoa inventories are also negative for prices after ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 2.25-year high of 3,437,710 bags on Wednesday.
On September 2, Barry Callebaut AG, the world’s biggest cocoa processor, said the global cocoa market is well supplied, leaving the market better prepared to manage risks than it did during the 2023/24 El Niño weather event that drove cocoa prices to record highs.
Cocoa prices recently strengthened, with NY cocoa posting an 11.75-month high on August 31 and London cocoa posting an 11.75-month high on September 1. Concerns about the quality of this year’s West African cocoa crops are underpinning cocoa prices. Cloudy weather and limited sunshine in the Ivory Coast and Ghana are allowing black pod disease to spread, lowering cocoa bean quality.
Cocoa prices also have underlying support from early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop, which show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, signaling a weak outlook for the main cocoa harvest, which began this month. Early crop assessments show poor pod development and an average estimate of 1.8 MMT for the season starting in September, down -18% from about 2.2 MMT in 2025/26.
Concern about a smaller cocoa crop from Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, is bullish for prices. On August 20, Ghana’s Cocoa Board said that after a field survey of pod counts, it estimates the 2026/27 Ghana cocoa crop will be 650,000 MT, down -13% from 750,000 MT in the 2025/26 crop year.
Also on the positive side, StoneX on July 29 cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 MT from a forecast of 149,000 MT in April, citing risks to the West African cocoa crop from an expected El Niño. In addition, Transgraph Consulting on July 23 forecast that the global cocoa surplus in 2026-2027 will shrink to 80,000 metric tons from 415,000 MT in 2025-2026, mainly due to an expected decline in production to 4.87 MMT in 2026-2027 from 5.11 MMT in 2025-2026.
In a bullish factor, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, on July 30 projected Ghana’s 2026/27 cocoa production could fall to 450,000 MT to 550,000 MT from 750,000 MT projected for 2025/26 due to the combined effects of swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms, and the likelihood of adverse weather from the El Niño weather pattern. However, production is strong for the current marketing year. Ghana’s cocoa board reported on August 26 that 750,000 MT of cocoa has been harvested for the 2025/26 season, which ends at the end of this month, up +25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25.
Cocoa prices have underlying medium-term support from future weather concerns. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. An El Niño typically brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and lowering yields.
Cocoa demand was mixed in Q2. On July 16, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell -4.6% to 316,366 MT, a larger decline than the -1.5% y/y expected and the lowest level for Q2 in 6 years. However, the National Confectioners Association reported that Q2 North American cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose by +7.7% y/y to 109,659 MT, well above expectations of a -1% y/y decline, easing cocoa demand fears. Also, Asian cocoa demand improved after the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q2 Asian cocoa grindings rose by +25% y/y to 224,646 MT, well above expectations of +9% y/y.
On the date of publication,
Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.Also Read
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