North Carolina’s 13th District: From Battleground to Safe Seat—Exposing Congress’s Dysfunction

RALEIGH, N.C.: In 2022, Democrat Wiley Nickel ran as a moderate and narrowly won North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District, garnering roughly 9,000 votes. Two years later, the current member, Republican Brad Knott, won the seat comfortably, beating him by over 70,000 votes.

Voters did not, and the elected officials reshaped their constituencies.

The GOP‑controlled legislature redrew North Carolina’s congressional map, converting the 13th District—once the last robust swing district in the South—into a secure Republican seat. The change split the rectangular district into an hourglass shape, removing Raleigh’s Democratic voters and inserting a stretch of rural counties that stretch to the Virginia border.

Swing seats—those a presidential candidate won by five or fewer percentage points—are vanishing from the national map. Over the past decades, heightened polarization has eroded the number of competitive House seats, as increasingly homogenous communities concentrate Democratic voting power in cities and Republican voting power in rural regions.

The surge of partisan redistricting accelerated after President Donald Trump’s election sparked a contentious battle. The count of swing districts dropped from 45 to 37, having numbered 96 in 1964.

Consequently, the vast majority of House seats are decided in primaries, drawing support from a small slice of voters who are typically at the ideological extremes of their party.

Nickel experienced the consequences during his single term in the House.

“The biggest divide I found in Congress wasn’t Democrat versus Republican, it was safe seats versus competitive seats,” Nickel said. “When your focus is on running a campaign where you talk to every single voter, you look at things differently and your focus is on solving problems.”
“Voters have little recourse to hold Congress accountable except during the narrow window of swing districts,” said Nick Troiano, executive director of Unite America, which projected a less representative Congress heading into the November election.

A narrow battlefield expands slightly in unpredictable midterm year

Republicans view the reduced number of competitive seats as a ceiling on Democratic gains for the November election.

Mike Marinella, a National Republican Congressional Campaign spokesperson, observed that both parties are vying for control of the remaining competitive contests.

The contest remains confined, though it may be broadening this year.

Democrats have broadened their targets as public outrage over conflicts with Iran and rising prices fuels new battles. Both parties are pouring campaign resources into areas previously considered safe.

Even in a challenging political climate, Republicans benefit from the limited number of swing seats.

“Even if there’s the kind of swing we got in 2006, there’s not going to be 40 seats changing hands. There’ll be 20 seats changing hands,” said Ian Shapiro, a Yale political scientist.
Scholars disagree over the relative roles of partisan gerrymandering and demographic sorting in the decline of competitive districts; research suggests gerrymandering alone would have roughly doubled the current count of competitive seats.

Consensus among experts holds that the loss of competitive seats fuels polarization, as lawmakers become primarily accountable to primary voters.

After analyzing election returns since 2016, Nickel determined that no Democratic incumbent has retained a seat where Trump captured 55 % or more of the vote, ultimately leading him to decline a potential re‑election bid.

Nickel, who had proposed legislation to mandate nonpartisan redistricting across all states, initially planned to run for Senate. Instead, when former Governor Roy Cooper declared his candidacy, Nickel turned to a district‑attorney race in Wake County—a deeply Democratic county that was excised from the 13th District.

The Democratic primary saw Nickel’s victory, and he is set to assume office in January with no Republican opposition.

This underscores how North Carolina—and the nation—have become politically segregated.

“If you simply draw large blocks across a state, you inevitably create non‑competitive districts because the electorate is so polarized,” said Joshua Huder, a political scientist at Georgetown University.

An hour away, a very different state

Only 15 % of North Carolina’s voting precincts could be classified as politically competitive, according to Michael Bitzer, a political scientist at Catawba College. “For the average North Carolinian, depending on where they live, a short drive will land them in a distinctly different version of the state,” he explained.

That certainly matches the experience traveling from the old 13th District to the new one. From the office towers, cafes, and gourmet restaurants of central Raleigh—part of the competitive 13th District—it is about a 90‑minute drive north through subdivisions and soy‑ and tobacco‑farmland that constitute the heart of the new, conservative district.

Here, few are talking about the congressional race. While many express dissatisfaction with the nation’s direction, they see no reason to support anyone other than a Republican.

“It’s just what I’ve always been,” said Linda Long, 62, a Republican in Roxboro who works at the local Walmart.

George Scott, a retired architectural engineer in Franklinton, viscerally dislikes Trump but remains a lifelong Republican and expects to continue voting that way.

“It’s just one person,” said Scott, 75.

Democrats make a long‑shot play in a narrow district

This is where Paul Barringer faces the challenge.

The Democratic nominee against Knott hopes for an upset in a year when even Republican members in safe seats like the 13th District are running scared.

Barringer drove his 2011 Toyota Land Cruiser, with two dogs in the back, to the home of Mary Blank, who leads the Indivisible chapter in Johnston County, a fast‑growing, conservative‑leaning area just outside Raleigh.

Previously a Republican, Barringer switched parties to run, hoping to attract voters of all stripes.

“I think people are disgruntled about the current direction, and they want leaders who can work across the aisle,” he said.

On the home porch, he was greeted rapturously by a small group of local liberals in the conservative area. One resident recalled the grueling tobacco‑processing experience and asked everyone who had gone through that rural North Carolina rite of passage to raise a hand—no one did.

“We’re all transplants!” one woman called out.

There was palpable excitement, especially after Barringer noted that national Democrats had flagged the seat as a potential upset target. Blank, a 73‑year‑old retired social studies teacher from New Jersey, acknowledged the possibility but remained realistic about the district’s dynamics.

“I’ve been saying all along I don’t think Paul can win,” she said.

Linwood Parker, the 78‑year‑old mayor of Four Oaks—a town 26 miles south of Blank’s home—also supports the GOP’s approach.

He is a lifelong Republican who is familiar with decades of gerrymandering tradition in North Carolina. Democrats once employed it ruthlessly to maintain legislative control, but now Republicans are the ones reshaping maps for partisan gain.

Parker endorses the practice, noting that without it, the House would have roughly double the number of competitive seats it has today.

“Redistricting is one of the levers that when Republicans are in control, they must shape,” Parker added. “Otherwise, it’s like handing someone two outs while we pitch three.”

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