Nuclear Energy Showdown: Evaluating Constellation Energy Against Vistra

Key Points

• Constellation Energy operates a much larger nuclear portfolio, though Vistra has secured substantial long-term demand from major technology companies.

• Constellation Energy anticipates base EPS growth of at least 20% annually through 2029, though this represents only a portion of its total earnings.

• Vistra pairs long-term nuclear contracts with additional earnings potential not yet factored into its 2027 EBITDA expectations.

Constellation Energy (NASDAQ: CEG) operates the largest U.S. nuclear power portfolio, with over 22 gigawatts of capacity at the end of fiscal 2025. Although Vistra (NYSE: VST) has a smaller nuclear portfolio at 6,448 megawatts, its contracted opportunities remain substantial. Both companies are actively securing long-term agreements with technology firms that require reliable electricity for data centers.

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However, the superior investment is not simply determined by nuclear capacity. Constellation Energy and Vistra currently trade at roughly 22.4 times and 14.4 times forward one-year earnings, respectively. This significant valuation gap plays a crucial role in identifying the better opportunity today.

Constellation Has Significant Revenue Visibility

Constellation Energy has signed a 20-year agreement to supply Microsoft with power from the planned restart of the 835-megawatt Crane Clean Energy Center. The company has also signed a 20-year agreement to supply Meta Platforms with 1,121 megawatts of nuclear power from the Clinton Clean Energy Center, along with an additional 920 megawatts of long-term power purchase agreements for nuclear generation in the second quarter (ending June 30, 2026).

Management expects base earnings per share to compound at 20% or more annually from 2026 through 2029. However, base earnings represent only about 60% to 70% of total adjusted operating earnings, so investors should not assume total adjusted operating earnings per share (EPS) will grow at the same rate.

Vistra Also Looks Attractive

Vistra’s 20-year agreements with Meta Platforms cover 2,609 megawatts, including 433 megawatts of new capacity expected from upgrades at existing plants. Amazon‘s AWS has also signed a 20-year agreement for up to 1,200 megawatts of power from Vistra’s Comanche Peak nuclear plant.

Vistra sees a 2027 adjusted EBITDA opportunity of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion from its ongoing operations, excluding potential benefits from the pending Cogentrix Energy acquisition and its agreements with Meta Platforms. The company has also reduced its share count by roughly 30% since November 2021, which has helped boost earnings per share even without relying entirely on faster business growth.

Consequently, while Constellation Energy deserves a premium, Vistra offers the stronger risk-reward proposition today.

Should You Buy Stock in Vistra Right Now?

Before investing in Vistra, it is important to weigh its current valuation and growth trajectory against its long-term contracted revenues.

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