The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) trades near the upper end of its recent range against the US Dollar (USD), holding just above mid-0.5900 levels after reaching its highest point since early June. While daily movement is minimal, the pair’s trajectory over the past fortnight has been largely driven by developments on the US side.
A softer-than-expected US retail sales report has reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike next month, weighing on the Greenback and allowing the Kiwi to extend its recent rebound.
New Zealand exports are projected at NZ$8.09 billion, leaving only a modest monthly surplus, with the annual trade balance remaining in deficit near NZ$3.74 billion. However, market focus remained on price action rather than these figures.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5943, maintaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds above the 20-period Simple Moving Average at 0.5909 and the 100-period SMA at 0.5878. The pair is approaching a cluster of overhead resistance, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 66 indicates positive momentum, though it approaches overbought thresholds, suggesting upside potential may be increasingly stretched.
Immediate resistance on the upside caps at 0.5947, with a stronger barrier at 0.5955. To the downside, initial support appears at 0.5938, followed by 0.5935. Deeper pullbacks are likely to find support at the 20-period SMA (0.5909) and the 100-period SMA (0.5878), which help sustain the broader bullish structure.
