September WTI crude (CLU26) closed down 2.88 (-3.12%) on Friday, and September RBOB gasoline (RBU26) fell 0.0726 (-2.18%).
WTI lost about half of Thursday’s 6% rally, while Brent slipped back to the $97‑per‑barrel area after hitting a two‑month high of $102 on Thursday.
Oil prices have weakened as shipments continue through the Red Sea despite Houthi attacks, with some tankers turning off their transponders. Prices surged more than 6% on Thursday after Iran‑backed Houthis struck two Saudi tankers, expanding disruptions beyond the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump said he is considering a “massive attack” and is “close to making a decision.”
The Houthis have vowed to block Saudi‑linked shipping and warned shipowners against calling at Saudi ports, threatening Saudi crude exports from Yanbu, a Red Sea hub used since the war cut traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Iran have exchanged strikes for 13 straight days, and the U.S. maintains its blockade of Iranian oil shipments in the Persian Gulf.
The International Maritime Organization warned that crossing the Strait of Hormuz is now too dangerous, and visible traffic has fallen sharply as Iran targets tankers. Global supply tightening is compounded by Ukraine’s intensified drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Russian crude output fell to 8.928 million bpd in June—the lowest in 2½ years—and processing rates are expected to average 3.51 million bpd in July, the lowest in 24 years. Ukrainian forces have struck at least 24 of Russia’s 34 largest refineries, causing widespread fuel rationing and a near‑total export ban. Russia, the world’s second‑largest diesel exporter, faces a deepening gasoline shortage.
Stronger Russian crude exports are adding to global supplies, with the four‑week average of Russian crude exports rising to 4.13 million bpd through June 28—the highest since the 2022 invasion. Meanwhile, OPEC delegates indicated plans to continue increasing production quotas, aiming to restore two‑thirds of the 1.65 million bpd cut made in 2023. OPEC+ said it will raise output by 188,000 bpd in August, though heightened U.S.–Iran tensions could hinder the increase. OPEC’s June production rose 2.34 million bpd to 18.75 million bpd.
Vortexa reported a 31% week‑over‑week rise in crude inventories on stationary tankers to 90.03 million bbl for the week ending July 17. The EIA weekly report showed crude inventories unexpectedly increased by 2.01 million bbl, gasoline stocks rose 765,000 bbl, and distillate stocks built by 1.4 million bbl. Nonetheless, Cushing crude supplies fell 624,000 bbl. Overall inventories remained below the five‑year seasonal averages: crude –5.3%, gasoline –7.1%, distillates –9.6%. U.S. crude production slipped 0.5% to 13.798 million bpd, and active oil rigs fell two to 450, near a 1.25‑year high.
