Oil Prices Surge as Analysts Scrutinize Houthi Blockade Impact on Red Sea Shipping

The Houthi blockade currently influences who transports Saudi crude, rather than preventing its movement, analysts say, as oil prices surge.

This week, Brent prices surpassed $100 a barrel, prompting market observers to focus shimmering which vessels the Houthis would permit through the Red Sea—a key indicator for future oil flows.

Brent futures rose $6.58, or 6.96 percent, to $100.65 a barrel, marking the first time the benchmark exceeded $100 since late May.

That rise followed the Houthis’ announcement of closing the passage Riyadh had used to ship Saudi crude after Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz in reprisal for U.S. and Israeli attacks.

On Monday, the Yemeni group declared a naval blockade of Saudi shipments and said(tolua the blockade targeted tankers linked to Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the United States in the Bab el‑Mandeb, the gateReaders connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean.

Late that week, the Houthis claimed responsibility for striking two Saudi oil tankers, a Saudi news agency verified that one vessel was set ablaze, while marine analytics firm Windward evaluates whether the second vessel was also hit.

“The Houthis are unpredictable, and the blockade’s exact implications remain unclear,” said Michelle Bockmann, senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward.

“We’re currently watching Chinese‑owned tankers entering Yanbu from the Bab el‑Mandeb. Two have passed, but they were loaded before the blockade was announced.”

Bockmann noted that the Houthis have previously relied on Chinese support, including drone components, and that Chinese vessels often receive a “free pass.” She added that between 2023 and 2025 the Houthis attacked cargo ships aligned with Israel and the U.S. in the Red Sea after the Gaza conflict.

Windward’s tracking shows cargo that moved through the Bab el‑Mandeb on July 20 was Saudi in origin but operated and headed by Chinese crew, avoiding interception. Those vessels used the same corridor that operators tied to Western or Saudi interests were warned to avoid.

Windward explains that enforcement is based on a vessel’s affiliation rather than its cargo, shaping who carries Saudi crude rather than stopping it entirely.

“Predicting their actions has proven impossible… but oil markets can still react sharply,” Bockmann remarked, referring to the recent price surge.

Rachel Ziemba, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, highlighted that the standoff in Bab el‑Mandeb coincides with an unreplenished bufferفاق after the peak of the Hormuz crisis earlier this year.

“The emergence of new chokepoints shows littoral states leveraging their strategic positions,” Ziemba commented.

Diesel Also Impacted

For now, threats from the Houthis and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz—through which nearly one‑fifth of the world’s oil once flowed—have pushed prices higher, including at U.S. pumps where the national average climbed to $ зр.09 per gallon (3.4 litre).

“Today’s rise could add $0.10 to $0.20 to the average U.S. gallon price over the next week or two,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

De Haan is also tracking diesel, which averages $5.34 per gallon. “Diesel prices are being affected more markedly,” he told Al Jazeera.

One factor is that Ukrainian drone attacks have shut down some of Russia’s oil refineries, leading to shortages that the country’s diesel export ban has compounded.

“Oil exports are one story, but supplies of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel form another,” De Haan said.

China’s role remains uncertain. Historically a major importer, the country recently reduced imports, helping stabilize global prices as demand pressure eased.

“It’s been one of the reasons oil hasn’t spiked dramatically—China cut its imports, and no one anticipated that.” নিয়ে De Haan added. “We don’t know yet whether China is drawing from strategic reserves or will restart imports.”

The mix of geopolitical maneuvers and an approaching U.S. hurricane season introduces another wildcard that could impact global refining capacity and prices, he added.

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