Oil Prices Surge as US-Iran Tensions Escalate in Strait of Hormuz

Brent crude climbs more than 4 percent as Washington and Tehran clash over control of critical waterway.

Published On 13 Jul 202613 Jul 2026

Oil prices surged following intensified military engagements between the United States and Iran over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint for global energy trade.

Brent crude, the primary global benchmark, exceeded $79 a barrel, marking a more than 4 percent increase as of early Monday, reflecting heightened geopolitical risks.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) conducted airstrikes on Iranian targets to neutralize threats against commercial shipping, following earlier operations aimed at dismantling capabilities that targeted the Cyprus-registered MV GFS Galaxy container vessel.

“The Strait of Hormuz remains a cornerstone of international commerce, and Iranian control over it is unacceptable,” CENTCOM stated, emphasizing its commitment to safeguarding maritime freedom.

In retaliation, Iranian forces deployed missile and drone strikes against Gulf neighbors, including the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain, escalating regional instability.

The Iranian Strait Authority reiterated its contested jurisdiction, warning that vessels violating its designated transshipment routes face “consequences” unrelated to international law.

Maritime traffic in the strait has plummeted to fewer than ten vessels daily, down from 20–22 pre-war levels, as heightened tensions deter navigation. Windward intelligence data reveals a sharp decline in crossings, with only six vessels recorded between Thursday and Friday (18:00 GMT). Just last weekend, nine vessels were tracked, four under Iranian flags.

The price spike follows a June 17 ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, which temporarily eased market panic. Oil prices have since rebounded 9 percent above pre-conflict levels, driven by ongoing uncertainty after US strikes on Iran commenced in February.

Oil analyst Mukesh Sahdev of XAnalysts projects Brent crude prices to stabilize in the upper $70s range through August and September, citing persistent geopolitical risks. “Short-term volatility may occur, but refiners’ forward procurement strategies—already diversifying away from Middle Eastern supplies—will likely dampen price spikes,” Sahdev noted.

With historical pre-war traffic averaging 130 daily transits, the current reduction underscores the strait’s vulnerability to conflict.

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