With the 2026 World Cup concluded, the Ballon d’Or race appears tightly contested among several contenders, including Harry Kane, Michael Olise, and Kylian Mbappé. However, none of these players secured victory, and Kane was not even the sole top scorer for England. Consequently, the prestigious award is now open to any outstanding performer. Historically, the Ballon d’Or recognized achievements within a single calendar year; since the 2025 edition, which was won by Ousmane Dembélé, it now reflects performance over a full European season (August 1 – July 31).
There is no cause for concern, as Lionel Messi and other players competing outside Europe remain eligible for the award, a status that has been allowed since geographic restrictions were lifted in 2007. Prior to that year, the honor was limited to players in European leagues. Moreover, a World Cup victory is not a prerequisite for consideration; thus, the award can be evaluated in contexts where continental competitions involve a broader pool of teams and players, unlike tournaments that only feature 48 nations.
The Ballot employs three principal criteria: individual performance measured by statistical indicators, team accomplishments—which vary according to the competitions a player’s side enters—and the subjective elements of class and fair play, which can occasionally sway the outcome, especially given the occasional introduction of new categories.
In 2020, Robert Lewandowski was widely expected to claim the Ballon d’Or, but the ceremony was canceled amid the COVID‑19 pandemic. The following year, he finished second behind Lionel Messi, prompting the creation of a separate “Striker of the Year” accolade, which Lewandowski captured consecutively, though he never secured the overall Ballon d’Or.
For many years, Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo dominated the award, each claiming multiple titles, with Luka Modrić and Karim Benzema breaking their streak before Messi’s 2023 transfer to Inter Miami. Since then, Rodri and Ousmane Dembélé have each been crowned Ballon d’Or laureates.
Rodri’s triumph coincided with a season many deemed relatively weak in talent depth; Manchester City secured the Premier League, FA Cup, and Champions League treble, while Spain also captured the European Championship. That same year, Vinicius Junior was anticipated to win, prompting Real Madrid to boycott the ceremony. With no clear frontrunner, an unexpected victor remains possible. Harry Kane currently leads the odds, yet, given the separate striker‑specific award, he might finish second in the overall rankings and contend for the specialized honor—where his chances surpass those of Erling Haaland.
This tournament marked Erling Haaland‘s first World Cup appearance as Norway emerged as a stronger soccer nation, while Khvicha Kvaratshkhelia—a Paris Saint‑Germain standout with 22 goals for club and country—was notably absent. Although his club output was impressive, international absence likely diminishes his impact on the award, though considerable weight continues to be placed on World Cup participation, a bias that is unlikely to fade soon.
Ballon d’Or top candidates
All stats include play for club and country.
Harry Kane
Bayern Munich
England
65
73
8
81
Bundesliga Golden Boot, Bundesliga title, DFB Cup, German Super Cup, DFB Cup Golden Boot
Kylian Mbappe
Real Madrid
France
60
58
13
71
LaLiga Golden Boot, FIFA World Cup Golden Boot, UEFA Champions League Golden Boot
Lamine Yamal
Barcelona
Spain
57
25
20
45
LaLiga, FIFA World Cup, Spanish Super Cup
Lionel Messi
Inter Miami
Argentina
49
45
31
76
MLS Cup, MLS MVP, MLS Golden Boot
Rodri
Manchester City
Spain
46
2
0
2
FIFA World Cup
Analyzing these figures reveals why Harry Kane emerges as a leading candidate: he tops the list with 81 combined goals and assists and accumulates the most individual honors. However, the Spanish contingent does not match his output; Lamine Yamal scored only once during the World Cup, and Rodri faced injury setbacks during a comparatively subdued season for Manchester City. Had Kane or Mbappé captured a World Cup title, their cases would have been unequivocal, but both finished in the third‑place match, creating an opening for Lionel Messi.
The Ballon d’Or is not solely a lifetime‑achievement honor, yet it is sometimes perceived as such. Despite Argentina’s lack of a World Cup triumph, Messi has dominated Major League Soccer with an extraordinary goal tally, averaging 1.55 goals per game—an unequivocal statistical feat. In periods of uncertainty, a statistically compelling season can propel a player to the forefront.
Subjective considerations also influence voting, particularly as Messi approaches 39 years of age, potentially marking his final eligibility cycle. Mbappé and Haaland seek to inherit his mantle, while Lamine Yamal remains a rising contender. With eight prior Ballon d’Or awards, a ninth—and perhaps final—recognition would be a historic milestone. Nevertheless, the award remains a human‑determined accolade, lacking a definitive voting formula.
Consequently, Harry Kane presents a deserving candidate, especially with the ceremony scheduled in London; yet, within an uncertain field, Messi could still ascend and claim the honor.