Outlook: Where SpaceX Stock May Trade by the End of 2026

After a ton of hype and anticipation, Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), aka SpaceX, finally began trading on the public market in June. The stock quickly rose to $225 but has since cooled and settled in the $150‑$165 range. Predicting where the shares will be by the end of 2026 is challenging, though some indicators exist.

It may seem hard to imagine, but I forecast SpaceX could trade near $100 by the end of 2026. Here’s the reasoning.

SpaceX is approaching a major pivotal moment

First, SpaceX is expected to release its second‑quarter earnings sometime in August. This will be the first earnings report since the IPO, giving investors a fresh view of the company’s ongoing operations. CEO Elon Musk will likely outline updated guidance and expectations for the coming quarters, and he rarely shies away from setting ambitious targets.

Meanwhile, Wall Street has already priced in lofty expectations for SpaceX’s shares. Using the projected 2025 revenue of $18.6 billion, the current market capitalization of roughly $2.07 trillion implies a valuation of over 111 times sales. Few established companies command such a premium.

A high valuation alone isn’t the issue; the real challenge is delivering results that justify that price.

Can SpaceX fall to $100 per share? It’s possible

Ultimately, the rich valuation is probably the main concern for investors in the second half of 2026. History shows many recent IPOs falter under the weight of high expectations, and it would not be surprising to see the stock retreat once SpaceX’s first earnings report sets new expectations for the future.

SpaceX grew revenue by 33% from 2024 to 2025. For a stock trading above 100 times revenue, that pace is likely insufficient. The company will need to accelerate growth. It does have fresh capital from the IPO and recently announced an agreement to acquire AI startup Anysphere (parent of the Cursor code editor) for $60 billion in stock.

Yet the bar remains extraordinarily high, making it tough to meet expectations. Even if revenue growth accelerates to 50% in 2026, pushing sales to $28 billion, the implied market cap would be about $1.4 trillion—a 36% drop from today’s level, putting shares around $103. This estimate does not yet account for dilution from the all‑stock Anysphere deal.

In short, SpaceX is an exciting venture with a prohibitively expensive share price. It may be prudent to wait until the hype subsides a bit before considering an investment.

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