The Pakistani government last week presented a draft budget to lawmakers that raises defense spending by 18% to 3 trillion rupees ($10.8 billion).
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said the increase is intended to make the country “invincible” amid regional uncertainty. Analysts view the rise as a response to evolving military technologies and emerging threats.
Defense analyst Maria Sultan, based in Islamabad, warned that future conflicts will no longer involve only two adversaries. “They will be shaped by weapons and technology flowing from multiple countries, fought across land, air, cyber, and electronic domains simultaneously,” she said.
A Changing Security Environment
In her interview with DW, Sultan noted that wars in Ukraine, the Middle East, and last year’s India-Pakistan standoff—with each side on the brink of nuclear conflict—have reshaped military planning. In May 2025, New Delhi launched “Operation Sindoor” in retaliation for a mass shooting in Pahalgam, which claimed at least 26 Indian Hindu tourists. India blamed the Pakistan-based Lashkar‑e‑Taiba and accused Islamabad of support, allegations Pakistan denied.
Both India and Pakistan claim Kashmir in whole, but each controls only a portion, making the region a flashpoint in their broader rivalry. The clash following the Pahalgam attack sparked debate over the limits of nuclear deterrence between rival nuclear powers. “Atomic weapons do not necessarily prevent conventional conflict below the nuclear threshold,” said Qamar Cheema, executive director of the Sanober Institute.
War Risks on Multiple Fronts
Pakistan’s military planners face a security environment shaped by India’s continuing modernization and the growing roles of drones, cyber capabilities, and precision‑guided weapons. The challenge extends beyond the eastern border. Islamabad is also engaged in conflict with Afghanistan, especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
In February, Islamabad declared it was in “open war” with Kabul after a rise in militant attacks. Pakistan accuses Kabul of failing to prevent groups from launching attacks, a claim Kabul rejects.
Pakistan’s Defense Budget Overshadowed by India
The defence boost comes as Islamabad navigates a $7 billion IMF program that helped avert default and restore macroeconomic stability following the 2022‑23 crisis. The government seeks to shift from stabilization to growth through tax reforms, tariff rationalization, and measures to boost exports and investment, with the IMF focusing on Pakistan’s fiscal framework and revenue assumptions during pre‑budget consultations.
Pakistan’s economy grew to about $452 billion in the fiscal year ending June, while India’s GDP is roughly $4.15 trillion, more than nine times larger. Similarly, India’s annual defence spending is estimated at $86 billion—almost eight times that of Pakistan’s.
Military spokesman Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry acknowledged the disparity: “We don’t have the luxury of unlimited money at our disposal,” he told Bloomberg, noting Pakistan operates on a fraction of India’s budget.
Escalating Conflict Between Pakistan and Afghanistan
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Columnist Khurram Husain notes that Pakistan has historically prioritized defence spending, even during economic stress. “It is a delicate balancing act for the government under the current IMF program,” he said, adding that the IMF sees defence expenditure as non‑negotiable and pushes for reforms in other sectors.
Fiscal Strain Meets Security Priorities
Some economists and political observers warn that development priorities could be strained if provinces absorb a greater fiscal share. “Pakistan has always found ways to fund what it sees as essential security requirements,” said Farrukh Saleem, an Islamabad‑based political economist. “The more difficult question is whether the political consensus required to sustain those choices remains intact when provinces begin to feel the trade‑offs more directly.”
Lawmakers are expected to vote on the defence hike later this month, with the government hoping to secure their backing before fiscal year‑end on July 1.
