Paris Appeals Court Decision Could Determine Marine Le Pen’s Path to 2027 French Presidential Race

PARIS — The political future of French far-right leader Marine Le Pen hangs in the balance Tuesday as a Paris appeals court issues a ruling on whether she can run in the next presidential election.

The judgment is expected from 1:30 p.m. and may take several hours to be read out. The decision could reshape the 2027 race to succeed President Emmanuel Macron if it removes the popular Le Pen from contention. Macron is barred by the constitution from seeking a third consecutive term.

Le Pen, 57, is challenging a March 2025 conviction in which she and other National Rally figures were found guilty of diverting European Parliament funds, using money meant for EU parliamentary assistants to pay party staff from 2004 to 2016.

The trial court handed down a prison sentence, suspended pending appeal, and a five-year ban on holding elected office.

Le Pen rejects any wrongdoing and continues to eye a fourth presidential bid. Yet a ruling that affirms a lengthy ban could end that ambition and halt a career that turned the National Rally into a leading political force.

Such an outcome would also ripple across the European Union by sidelining a vocal critic of the 27-member bloc.

Should she be disqualified, her protégé Jordan Bardella would step in. At 30, Bardella leads the anti-immigration, euro-skeptic National Rally.

Other scenarios remain open. The appeals court might uphold the conviction but shorten the office ban to two years or less, or drop the ban entirely.

A ban of two years or less would lapse before the first round of the presidential election, set for April 2027.

That would not guarantee Le Pen runs. She has indicated that if the court imposes constraints that impede campaigning, she may bow out, including any prison term, electronic tagging, or related judicial limits.

“If I’m allowed to be a candidate but am effectively prevented from campaigning freely, then you understand that wouldn’t be possible,” Le Pen said in an interview last week.

Prosecutors urged the appeals court to impose four years in prison, three suspended, plus a five-year ban on elected office.

They alleged Le Pen directed a “system” designed to “siphon off” EU funds for her party’s gain.

Though not requested by prosecutors, the appeals court may order the office ban to apply immediately, as the lower court did.

Le Pen could still turn to the Court of Cassation, France’s top court, though it is uncertain whether judges would suspend the penalty pending final review.

The Court of Cassation has stated that, if asked to hear the case, it would aim to rule before the 2027 presidential vote.

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