Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his coalition government’s response to the historic victory of the far‑right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the Saxony‑Anhalt state election will be crucial for the future of the federal administration, according to political scientist Nicolas Spohn speaking to Euronews.
Final results from last Sunday’s election in the eastern German state show the AfD captured 43.8 percent of the vote — more than double its share five years earlier in a region of about 2.1 million inhabitants. Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) fell to 17.2 percent.
“It truly is a historic triumph for the AfD, and an earthquake for the other parties,” said Spohn, an expert on East German state politics.
The pro‑Kremlin, anti‑immigration party’s win marks the first time since World War II that a far‑right party is within reach of power at a German state level.
Questions have arisen about what this means for Germany’s national politics. Thorsten Frei, leader of the CDU in the Bundestag, denied that the CDU’s poor showing in Saxony‑Anhalt will affect the federal level.
“But this is what frustrates people,” Spohn added, warning that “ignoring the signals from elections like Saxony‑Anhalt could hand the AfD even more votes.”
Voter discontent
Failure to deliver on promises made ahead of the 2025 elections — especially his pledge to revive Germany’s stagnant economy — has caused Merz’s popularity to plummet. A recent YouGov survey found only 16 percent of Germans view him favorably.
“This election shows that the CDU must correct its national‑level course,” the political scientist explained. “Many voters are frustrated with the CDU’s performance; they were promised different outcomes than what was delivered after the election, and the national economy is now worse than before the last vote.”
He acknowledged that some factors lie beyond the CDU’s control, such as the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Iran. “These are issues Chancellor Merz can influence only marginally, yet Germans still feel the economic strain.”
This discontent is especially pronounced in Saxony‑Anhalt, where Merz’s approval dropped to just over 9 percent. Spohn believes this decline played a larger role in the election outcome than genuine enthusiasm for the AfD’s platform.
“Support for the AfD is not rooted in agreement with its far‑right agenda, but rather in the desire to try something different,” he said.
Saxony‑Anhalt, formerly part of the German Democratic Republic (East Germany), has suffered the steepest population loss of any German state over the past 35 years — shedding a quarter of its residents since reunification in 1990. The impact is most evident in rural areas and among young people, who face teacher shortages and limited career prospects.
“What I mean is that 40 percent of voters do not back the AfD because of its extremist policies, but despite them. People in eastern Germany are not more right‑wing; they are simply more frustrated.”
The AfD now carries strong momentum into upcoming regional elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg‑Western Pomerania, both scheduled for less than two weeks away. In Mecklenburg‑Western Pomerania, the party leads voter‑intent polls with roughly 35 percent support.
To reverse the trend, Spohn argued, Merz’s CDU must offer voters a positive vision. “At present we lack such a vision, and the AfD is the only party presenting an optimistic outlook — summed up by the slogan ‘everything is possible.’ Consequently, everything can also be different.”
