Prediction Market Traders Forecast September Jobs Beat Economist Forecasts

Alan Nudelman (R), from Jiffy Lube, speaks to attendees about job opportunities at the Mega JobNewsUSA South Florida Job Fair held at the Amerant Bank Arena on Sept. 25, 2026, in Sunrise, Florida.

Joe Raedle | Getty Images

Traders on prediction markets expect a strong U.S. employment report for September. After August’s larger‑than‑expected gain of 162,000 jobs, Kalshi traders assign a 60% probability that September’s payroll increase will exceed 90,000 positions.

They also see roughly even odds that the report will land in six figures, above the Dow Jones economist consensus of 84,000.

These platforms ask users to bet on whether the BLS data will show job growth above specific thresholds, with settlements based on official Bureau of Labor Statistics figures.

Polymarket participants similarly view a near 50‑50 chance that September’s employment numbers will be in the six‑figure range, using the same BLS‑based resolution method.

Although the labor market showed signs of weakness earlier in the summer, August’s robust report signaled a rebound and gave Federal Reserve policymakers leeway to prioritize inflation and potentially raise rates at their September meeting.

The September employment report is slated for release Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, preceded by ADP’s national employment data Wednesday at 8:15 a.m. ET.

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