Prediction Markets Project Persistent Gas‑Price Pressures Ahead of Midterms

A sign at a Rutter’s location near Milton, Pennsylvania displays current prices for regular gasoline and diesel.

Paul Weaver | Lightrocket | Getty Images

Affordability ranks among voters’ key concerns heading into the 2026 midterm elections, and gas prices—one of the toughest costs for consumers—are projected to stay elevated through Election Day.

Speculators on prediction‑market platform Kalshi assign an 87 % probability that the AAA national average for gasoline will remain above $4 per gallon on Nov 3.

Although prices stay high overall, analysts on Kalshi give a 42 % odds that the national average will dip below $4.25 by Election Day. Thursday’s data shows the average at $4.36 per gallon.

Gas prices spiked to an average of $4.56 per gallon in late May after a March surge triggered by the U.S.–Iran conflict and Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical Persian‑Gulf route for oil exports. They later fell to $3.79 per gallon in early July before climbing once more through summer.

Diesel prices reached near‑$6.53 per gallon in September, peaking on September 22, then dropped to $6.28. Kalshi traders cite a 68 % likelihood that diesel will remain above $6 per gallon on Election Day.

Higher diesel costs especially burden agricultural giants such as Iowa and Kansas, as well as Alaskan communities that rely on diesel for power generation. These regions are focal points of Senate races this November.

With sustained high prices, Democrats’ prospects for overturning Republican dominance in the Senate appear stronger. Kalshi traders regard a 63 % probability that the party will capture the upper chamber from Republicans.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.

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