England and Wales is facing a growing prison population crisis, with numbers climbing steadily since the 1990s and reaching record levels in 2024. The Institute for Government (IFG) attributes this rise largely to increasingly lengthy prison sentences imposed by courts.
Analysis by the IFG reveals that average prison sentences handed down at Crown Courts in 2023 were over 25% longer than those imposed in 2012. Certain offences saw even steeper increases; for instance, average robbery sentences in 2023 were 13 months longer compared to 2012—an escalation of 36%.
These extended sentences have led to more individuals being incarcerated simultaneously, straining the capacity of the correctional system.
According to former Conservative Justice Secretary David Gauke, who conducted an independent sentencing review for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, the upward trend in imprisonment periods stems from a longstanding political “bidding war” among parties since the 1990s—each vying to demonstrate toughness on crime through harsher penalties.
Interestingly, Gauke highlights a paradox: while prison populations have expanded, overall crime rates in England and Wales have declined, as reported by the official Crime Survey. This suggests that despite reduced criminal activity, a greater number of people are being sentenced to prison—and for longer durations.
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