Renewed Clashes in Northern Ethiopia Undermine 2022 Peace Agreement

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia — Fresh fighting erupted in northern Ethiopia on Thursday, effectively dismantling a peace agreement that had brought an end to a devastating two-year conflict that began in 2020.

The renewed hostilities involve Ethiopian federal forces and members of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), an armed political movement based in Tigray, Ethiopia’s northernmost regional state.

The TPLF and federal troops engaged in warfare from November 2020 until a peace accord was signed in Pretoria, South Africa, in November 2022. Eritrean forces also participated alongside Ethiopian troops during that conflict. Ghent University researchers estimate the civilian death toll reached approximately 500,000, including deaths from violence, famine, and collapsed healthcare services.

Following the peace agreement, a caretaker administration perceived as aligned with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was established in Mekelle, the capital of Tigray. However, tensions persisted as the TPLF continued maneuvering for political influence in the city.

This latest phase sees the TPLF mobilizing broadly, assembling former adversaries in pursuit of removing Abiy from power in Addis Ababa, the federal capital.

On Sunday, the TPLF and six additional opposition groups announced the formation of an alliance aimed at overthrowing Abiy’s Prosperity Party, which secured reelection in June through elections boycotted by major opposition factions.

Both parties had been accusing each other of bad faith, with civilians in Tigray anticipating renewed violence for months. In May, the TPLF forced out regional leader Tadesse Werede, who reported to Abiy, replacing him with a new council headed by TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael, who led the group during the prior conflict.

Ethiopian federal authorities allege the TPLF seeks to forge an alliance with neighboring Eritrea to destabilize Ethiopia. The TPLF counters that Ethiopian forces are conducting drone strikes in Tigray. Eritrea claims it views Abiy’s insistence on sovereign Red Sea access through its territory as alarming.

Both sides deny launching this current round of hostilities, though most combat is believed concentrated in remote, mountainous regions. On Wednesday, TPLF fighters captured the Mekelle airport from federal police, prompting Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights to the area and other regional destinations.

The Ethiopian News Agency portrayed the TPLF as a “Trojan horse,” asserting that the group’s “repeated attempts to incite conflict” defy government patience and concessions. Meanwhile, the coalition formed by the TPLF and six opposition groups calls itself the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival. Its members include the Amhara Fano National Movement, Oromo Liberation Army, Ogaden National Liberation Front, Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement, and Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement.

This alliance, uniting previously adversarial groups, may intensify pressure on Abiy, according to Kjetil Tronvoll, an Africa analyst at Oslo New University College.

“The situation now differs substantially from the 2020-2022 war on Tigray,” he wrote on X. “This time around Fano is an ally and Eritrea a backer. Supply lines are also secured through Eritrea.”

The African Union and regional bloc IGAD have urged de-escalation. U.S. Ambassador Ervin J. Massinga expressed disappointment with the TPLF’s “poor decision to launch a large-scale offensive,” stating their “unwinnable fight does nothing for the people” and advising other armed groups to avoid similar actions. TPLF official Amanuel Assefa criticized the statement as unfair.

Abiy has garnered praise for ambitious infrastructure projects aiming to transform Addis Ababa into a world-class city. To supporters, the prime minister is viewed as a visionary reimagining Ethiopia’s former greatness.

Abiy rose from relative obscurity to assume power in 2018 as a reform-oriented pragmatist. His reconciliation efforts with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, after decades of hostility since Eritrea’s 1993 separation, earned him the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize.

A year later, Abiy surprised observers by initiating military operations against the TPLF.

Critics now view him as a provocateur whose actions risk sparking broader conflicts across the Horn of Africa. His pursuit of sovereign access to Eritrean port Assab has reignited tensions with Eritrea, which shares a border with Tigray. Abiy also antagonized Somalia by attempting to negotiate maritime access through Somaliland territory.

Rodney Muhumuza reported from Kampala, Uganda.

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