Two years ago, some Hispanic and Black voters shifted toward the Republican Party, contributing to Donald Trump’s decisive victory. That trend has now reversed in the recent midterm elections.
Democrats won all three House contests in the heavily Hispanic districts along the Texas‑Mexico border.
According to a New York Times analysis, majority‑Hispanic counties swung more than 22 percentage points away from Republican Senate candidates when compared with the 2024 presidential election.
Data reporter Jeff Adelson noted that this shift exceeds changes observed in any other major demographic group nationwide.
The change coincides with broad dissatisfaction with immigration enforcement; a Pew Research Center survey finds that 56 % of Americans hold an unfavorable view of ICE.
Majority‑Black counties also moved substantially toward Democratic candidates in Senate races.
Mississippi’s Senate contest remains tight; the state has the highest proportion of Black voters in the nation, at roughly 37 %.
A victory for Scott Colom would mark the first time a Democrat is elected to the Senate from Mississippi since 1982.
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