Resilient North American Cocoa Grindings Defy Forecasts and Lift Global Prices

On Friday, September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) closed up +171 (+3.19%), while September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) settled up +118 (+2.97%).

Cocoa prices finished sharply higher on Friday as short covering took hold following an unexpected rise in North American second-quarter grindings. The National Confectioners Association reported late Thursday that Q2 North American cocoa grindings increased +7.7% year over year to 109,659 metric tons, well above the anticipated decline of -1% and easing concerns over weakening demand.

On Thursday, cocoa prices had fallen to a 1.5-week low on signs of soft global demand after the European Cocoa Association said Q2 European grindings dropped -4.6% to 316,366 MT, a steeper fall than the expected -1.5% and the lowest Q2 total in six years. In contrast, Asian demand improved as the Cocoa Association of Asia reported Q2 Asian grindings up +25% year over year to 224,646 MT, far ahead of the +9% forecast.

Indications of larger global supplies pressured prices, with Bloomberg reporting Thursday that Nigerian June cocoa exports rose 30% year over year to 18,922 MT.

Over the past month, cocoa has rallied sharply, with NY cocoa reaching a 6.25-month high and London cocoa a 9.5-month high last Thursday. Heavy rains in Ivory Coast and Ghana have flooded roads, restricting farmers’ access to farms and ports and threatening supply. Excess moisture also raises the risk of brown rot and black pod disease, lowering yields.

Renewed demand strength supported prices after Barry Callebaut AG, the world’s largest cocoa processor, posted last Thursday a fiscal Q3 sales gain of 5.7%, its first rise in more than two years.

Medium-term support stems from weather risks. Last Wednesday, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño pattern that emerged in the equatorial Pacific is likely to be among the strongest in over 75 years, typically bringing warmer, drier West African conditions that stress cocoa trees.

Rising inventories weighed on prices as ICE cocoa stocks reached a 2-year high of 3,249,974 bags on Friday.

Cumulative data from Ivory Coast showed farmers shipped 2.09 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025 through July 12, 2026), up +21% from a year earlier.

Early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop show below-average cherelle formation, signaling a weak main harvest from September. Poor pod development points to an estimated 1.8 MMT, down -18% from about 2.2 MMT in 2025/26, with markets awaiting July surveys.

Prices faced pressure last month on abundant supply signals. On June 11, Ivory Coast raised its port arrivals estimate by over 260,000 MT this season and later projected 2025/26 output down -10.8% to 1.65 MMT.

Smaller Nigerian output, projected down -11% to 305,000 MT for 2025/26, provided support. Ghana cut farmer prices nearly 30% for 2025/26, and Ivory Coast reduced mid-crop pay by 57%, with both nations supplying over half of global cocoa.

StoneX on April 29 trimmed its 2026/27 global surplus estimate to 149,000 MT from 267,000 MT and its 2025/26 surplus to 247,000 MT from 287,000 MT, citing El Niño risks to West African crops.

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